Global challenges are reshaping relationships, particularly between the UK and the EU. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s “Brexit reset” aims to strengthen ties post-Brexit, with recent diplomatic engagements signaling a thaw. While discussions on trade and defense cooperation are on the horizon, the EU insists on certain conditions, including adherence to its laws. Public sentiment in the UK is shifting towards closer ties with Europe, amidst concerns over defense strategies under the new American administration.
The Current Global Landscape
The world is facing significant challenges, marked by ongoing conflicts like the war in Ukraine and the unpredictable geopolitical shifts occurring in Syria. Additionally, the policies of the newly elected American President Donald Trump remain a topic of speculation. In this high-stakes environment, allied nations are increasingly fortifying their strategic partnerships, even as some have distanced themselves recently.
Renewed Relations Between the UK and the EU
One notable example of this trend is the evolving relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has consistently asserted that the Brexit process, completed in 2020, is irreversible. Nevertheless, upon taking office in July, he pledged to rejuvenate ties with this vital trading partner, coining the term “Brexit reset” to describe his vision for a new chapter.
This thawing of relations is already visible, even amidst the winter chill in Brussels. London has made its intentions clear, initiating a charm offensive. The EU, recognizing the pressing geopolitical challenges, is open to dialogue but remains cautious about being exploited and is prepared to engage in legal disputes if necessary.
Starmer’s invitation to attend the upcoming EU summit marks a significant milestone. Recently, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves engaged in discussions with her European counterparts, a first since Brexit. Paschal Donohoe, the Irish Eurogroup president, expressed optimism that this would be “the first of many such dialogues.”
Furthermore, the UK has forged a migration agreement with France, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands aimed at enhancing efforts against smuggling operations and expediting legal actions against perpetrators.
Shortly thereafter, EU Council President Antonio Costa visited London, extending an invitation for Starmer to an informal EU summit scheduled for early February—a gesture he eagerly accepted.
In summary, there has been a noticeable uptick in exchanges between the UK and the EU, with expectations for even greater engagement in the near future. During a recent meeting, EU ministers discussed their approach to relations with London, revealing a “strong openness” among member states to bolster these ties.
At the upcoming summit, leaders are likely to deliberate on easing certain Brexit trade restrictions desired by the UK, especially concerning the export of animal products and the acknowledgment of professional qualifications. Formal negotiations on these matters are anticipated to commence in the new year. However, an internal EU document suggests that Brussels is intent on preventing “cherry-picking” and has established clear boundaries.
According to reports, Brussels insists that London swiftly agrees to extend the fishing provisions outlined in the Brexit free trade agreement, which currently permits EU fleets to fish near the British coast until summer 2026. Addressing this issue is deemed essential for any in-depth discussions on a “reset.” Additionally, the EU seeks concessions related to a youth mobility program, allowing young adults to study or work in each other’s territories for up to three years.
Lastly, the EU demands a more significant role for the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in future dealings. An agreement concerning animal product exports would only be feasible if the UK aligns with relevant EU laws and adheres to ECJ rulings moving forward.
The list of requirements from Brussels is politically sensitive for London, stirring controversy among British conservatives. The debate around “foreign judges” echoes contentious aspects of ongoing negotiations between Switzerland and the EU, which are nearing conclusion.
In the defense sector, there are emerging dynamics, particularly as Trump urges European nations to increase their defense spending. The UK has proposed initiating talks for a comprehensive security agreement with the EU, while the EU Commission plans to unveil a white paper detailing strategies for enhancing defense investments. Reports indicate a proposed fund, financed through national bonds totaling €500 billion, aimed at supporting collaborative defense and armament initiatives.
Through improved procurement cooperation, the aim is to minimize costly duplications across nations. Although the UK remains outside the internal market and current defense funding structures, it is recognized as a crucial hub for the European arms industry.
Mike Martin, chair of the defense committee in the British House of Commons, has expressed concerns that any peace plan for Ukraine promoted by Trump may not align with European interests. He highlighted that the annexation of territory and enforcing neutrality on a sovereign European nation would be challenging for Europe to accept. “A ceasefire and the deployment of Western troops in a diminished Ukraine would also pose complications, especially since Europeans would have to provide these troops without American support, raising doubts about NATO’s mutual defense commitment,” he stated.
Given this context, Martin believes that the UK and EU will likely find common ground in defense interests in the coming years, fostering closer collaboration.
A survey conducted shortly after the American presidential election by the European Council on Foreign Relations indicates that citizens in the five largest EU countries and the UK are receptive to such a rapprochement. In Germany, France, Poland, Spain, and Italy, between 41% and 54% of respondents favor granting the UK sectoral access to the internal market to facilitate closer security cooperation, reflecting a more conciliatory attitude than currently seen in Brussels.
Moreover, the British public’s perception of rapprochement with the EU has improved following Trump’s election, with a majority now considering Brexit a mistake. Additionally, 50% of respondents believe that the UK should prioritize relationships with European neighbors, compared to only 17% who favor aligning more closely with the USA.
Nonetheless, Starmer is proceeding with caution, aiming to avoid providing ammunition for the conservative opposition and the right-wing nationalist Reform Party. If the UK does not swiftly overcome its economic stagnation, there may be increasing pressure within Labour advocating for growth through renewed ties with the EU market.