“If China does not support our sanctions against Russia, it must at least not interfere” : this is how Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, warned the Chinese Prime Minister, then President Xi Jinping, on Friday April 1. With Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, she spoke with Beijing on the war in Ukraine and China’s position in this conflict.
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“No European citizen would understand that China supports Russia’s ability to continue the war”, she added. The President of the European Commission says this would seriously tarnish China’s reputation in Europe. If the warning is clear, will it be effective? In any case, if the objective of the European Union was to force China to take a position on the invasion of Ukraine, it failed.
For the moment, the signal sent by Brussels to dissuade Beijing from supporting Russia economically or militarily has not changed the Chinese position by one millimeter. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Beijing opposes “both to hot and cold wars, to divisions between blocs, and refuses to take sides”. A way to dismiss Europeans and Russians back to back, without getting angry with anyone.
Even if this summit did not make it possible to bend China, it gives the European Union the opportunity to issue a warning to Beijing. Brussels now knows that China will cultivate ambiguity about the invasion of Ukraine, without responding directly to the Europeans’ request. This ambivalent position allows the Chinese to buy time and see how the war evolves.
China behaves like a spectator, watching for opportunities and letting Russia take all the risks. This also explains why Beijing abstained during the vote in the Security Council condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This terror of an agreement between two great powers, China and Russia, has been invoked in recent years to justify the dialogue maintained by the West with Vladimir Putin, in particular at the initiative of France. The idea is to “not to push Russia into the arms of China”. However, the danger is not so obvious, even after the proclamation this week of “boundless friendship” between Moscow and Beijing.
Firstly, because, for decades, China has sealed only occasional alliances while retaining its total freedom of maneuver. Then, because the history of the last century teaches us that the great declarations of friendship between authoritarian or dictatorial regimes often end in mutual confrontation.
Finally, China’s most important economic partner is indeed the European Union and not Russia.