The defense ministers of the European Union are meeting on Tuesday in Brussels to discuss the aid it grants to Ukraine, while Germany has already announced doubling the amount of its aid.
Ukraine’s counter-offensive appears to be stalling, with the front line frozen and the Russian army increasing the number of its attacks. In this context, Ukraine needs the support of its international partners more than ever. Germany is providing new military material aid and increasing its funding but, overall, the issue is starting to be a little more complicated for the 27 who put the issue on the agenda of the defense ministers, meeting Tuesday November 14 in Brussels.
The European Union is not moving as quickly as it had hoped, particularly on the supply of ammunition. There are already two plans of one billion euros each: the first to reimburse half of the munitions supplied to Ukraine; the second to finance joint purchases of ammunition. In addition, since May, the European Commission has been responsible for a plan to revive production but also, in the longer term, the capacities of the European arms industry.
The EU will not keep its commitments on sending munitions
The European Union considers that the results are starting to be felt, with an increase in production of around a quarter since February. But the goal of supplying one million rounds of ammunition for Ukrainian artillery by March will not be achieved. The Europeans have so far supplied 300,000 shells while Ukraine needs one million per year, which is also the European production objective. The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, is proposing to divert exports to Ukraine, a third of which are intended for other countries.
On the political level we know that the talks between Europeans will be complicated, the Commission has proposed to start accession negotiations and this will be the big deal at the summit on December 14 and 15. On the financial level, the commission is proposing 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine and Hungary, in fact, is threatening, like last year, to veto it. This point will also have to be decided at the summit but, already, some are imagining out loud that in the event of a veto, each country will send its own financial contribution separately without going through a common envelope of 27.
Berlin remains the leading European contributor
In Germany, the government has already announced the doubling of aid paid to Ukraine. The envelope will therefore not be four billion euros as initially planned, but eight billion. The final decision will be made by the Bundestag budget committee, which is due to meet on Thursday. To justify the doubling of the German contribution, the minister also points out that the credits granted since the Russian invasion were quickly exhausted. Germany reaffirms that it stands by Ukraine. The Minister of Foreign Affairs sent a message, indirectly to Vladimir Putin, advising him not to rejoice too soon at a hypothetical slowdown in Western aid paid to kyiv. “We will continue to increase and develop our support for Ukraine” declared the minister.
Germany thus consolidates its position as the main contributor to Ukraine: first place within the European Union and second globally, behind the United States. Berlin has provided Ukraine with 22 billion euros in aid since the start of the conflict, in the form of humanitarian, financial and military aid. Berlin supplied, in particular, Leopard 2 battle tanks, Marder-type infantry fighting armored vehicles, Iris T and Patriot anti-missile defense batteries, rocket launchers and Guepard anti-aircraft guns. But still no long-range Taurus missiles that kyiv insists on. Berlin fears that they will be used to directly target Russian territory and refuses to provide them to kyiv.
Increasing this envelope would also allow Germany to achieve the objectives set by NATO in terms of military spending. The Alliance asks each of its member states to devote 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to military spending. With this additional aid package for Ukraine, German military spending would represent 2.1% of its GDP. Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised once again at the end of the week to sustainably respect this 2% objective.