Europe will help Ukraine keep “the lights on” this winter with material and financial aid after the massive destruction of power plants by Russian troops and the alert launched on Thursday by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which is also worried about Moldova.
“The Ukrainian energy system has survived the last two winters […]but this winter will be by far its most severe test yet,” warned IEA Director General Fatih Birol at a press briefing in Brussels with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The head of the European executive will travel to kyiv this Friday to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky. “Our Ukrainian friends need our help to keep the lights on. Ukrainians need to stay warm,” she insisted.
The European Union will provide an additional 160 million euros in humanitarian aid and energy infrastructure (solar panels, etc.), she said, mentioning a total of 2 billion euros since the start of the Russian invasion.
Following the loss of “more than two-thirds” of Ukraine’s electricity production capacity, the Agency recommended in a report published on Thursday a dozen urgent solutions to repair the power stations damaged, destroyed or occupied by Russia.
The situation in Ukraine “constitutes one of the most pressing energy security problems in the world today,” warns the Paris-based agency.
The IEA is urging European countries to speed up the “delivery of equipment and spare parts” to repair the power plants, and to increase the capacity to import electricity and gas from the European Union.
For gas, the agency believes that Slovakia, Hungary and Poland should work with the rest of the EU to secure “in the long term” the increases in export capacity granted urgently after the Russian invasion.
The report also highlights the need to strengthen “the physical and IT security of critical infrastructures”, notably via anti-drone protection on power plants.
A priority for Ukrainians: “Every day our energy infrastructure is attacked. […] If we have no protection, it will be endless. […] “We repair them, they destroy them,” Olha Ponomarchuk, who heads international relations at Ukraine’s energy ministry, told AFP on Thursday.
Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine relied on nuclear power for half of its electricity, coal-fired power plants for 23% and gas-fired power plants for 9%.
The IEA estimates that “around 30 billion dollars” is needed to repair the damage and modernize the electricity grid.
“We understand that the best solution is to develop small energy stations” spread throughout the country, adds Ms. Ponomarchuk.
Moldova also under threat
At peak winter, Ukraine’s electricity demand could climb to 18.5 gigawatts (GW), according to the IEA. That would leave it short of 6 GW of generating capacity — the equivalent of Denmark’s consumption at peak demand.
In the heating sector, 18 thermal and power plants, 815 boiler rooms and 354 kilometres of district heating pipes were damaged. For this sector alone, the damage is estimated at 2.4 billion dollars.
Furthermore, the IEA fears that the announced end of 2024 of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine threatens to plunge Moldova into darkness and cold.
Although the small country is not exposed to Russian bombing like Ukraine, it depends on Russia for two-thirds of its electricity supply, as the main gas-fired power plant that supplies it is located in the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria.
However, the halting of Russian gas transit via Ukraine beyond December 31 “creates significant uncertainty for gas deliveries to the Transnistria region and for Moldova’s electricity security,” the report notes.
Ukraine announced at the end of August its intention not to renew the contract binding it until December 31 to Russia to transport Russian gas to Europe via its extensive network of gas pipelines.
Strengthening interconnections with European countries “is essential to support Moldova’s energy security,” the IEA notes. The construction of a third new high-voltage line between Moldova and Romania has been approved and “should be operational in 2031” after two others planned for 2025 and 2027 (Vulcanesti-Chisinau and Balti-Suceava).
But this winter, Moldova will rely mainly on “diesel generators and stocks of firewood and biofuels.”