“Not at the end of its troubles”, Europe risks running out of gas for the winter of 2023-24, alerted the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday, which calls on governments to “act immediately” in particular to reduce demand.
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“We are sounding the alarm to European governments and the European Commission for next year: we believe that Europe must take action now to avoid the risks of a gas shortage in 2023-2024,” said launched the director of the AIE Fatih Birol, during an online conference with some journalists.
About 30 billion cubic meters of gas could indeed be lacking in 2023, in the event of a complete cessation of deliveries from Russia but also due to the economic rebound of China which would come to absorb a large part of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) , according to calculations by the Agency, created by the OECD in 1974 to advise countries on energy matters.
European reserves would then only be 65% full at the start of winter 2023-2024, compared to 95% today, according to Mr. Birol.
Beware of “overconfidence”
“The ‘cushion’ provided by current reserve levels, together with the recent decline in gas prices and unusually warm temperatures, should not lead to overly optimistic conclusions about the future,” warns the IEA, which points out that in the summer of 2023 the global geopolitical and economic conditions for sourcing and filling reserves should have changed significantly compared to 2022.
The filling of reserves benefited this summer from “key factors which may well not be repeated in 2023”, she adds.
Starting with the position of Russia, whose gas pipelines delivered almost normal quantities this year in the first half of the year, before deliveries slowed down, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Ultimately, the country should have supplied some 60 billion m3 to the European Union by 2022. Which will be “highly unlikely” in 2023, notes the IEA, noting that Russian deliveries could even cease completely.
In addition, China’s lower LNG needs this year have facilitated European purchases. Global LNG production must increase, but only by 20 billion m3, and if Chinese imports return to their 2021 level in 2023, they would absorb most of this growth, estimates this analysis, entitled “Never too early to prepare for the winter 2023-24”.
With prices easing this fall and demand limited by the mild weather, “there is a risk of overconfidence creeping into the subject of gas supplies to Europe. However, we are by no means at the end of our troubles,” commented Mr. Birol.
Immediate measures
Governments must therefore “take immediate measures to accelerate energy efficiency, the deployment of renewable energies, heat pumps, and any other means of structurally reducing the demand for gas”, underlines the economist, who also mentions, “in some countries”, the extension of nuclear power plants.
According to him, the unprecedented increase in wind and solar production in 2022 in Europe will have enabled the region to avoid consuming 15 billion m3 of gas.
“Until now, the growth of renewables has been driven by the fight against climate change; but this year, the main reason for this record growth has been energy security,” he notes.
By how much should Europe thus reduce its demand for gas to be quiet?
“This year (in 2022) we estimate that gas demand will have fallen by 11%, or around 45 billion m3, compared to 2021. To be quiet (in 2023), we would like to see a drop of 30 billion m3. m3” even before the end of the summer, answers Mr. Birol, who must meet government representatives on Friday to sound “the alarm bell”.
The Agency plans to publish “a roadmap” shortly, proposing a list of these concrete actions which “would make it possible to have reserves filled to 95% at the start of the 2023-24 heating season, and to structurally reduce consumption. of gas”, all the more so against a backdrop of still high prices.