EU leaders welcomed Labour’s landslide victory in the British election on Friday, hoping for a warming of relations between London and Brussels… but without expecting any upheaval in the post-Brexit agreements.
“A historic electoral victory,” hailed the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in his congratulations to the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying he was looking forward to working with London under a “Labour” government.
“The EU and the UK are essential partners, cooperating in all areas of mutual interest to our citizens,” said Mr Michel, who plans to meet Mr Starmer at the European Political Community summit on 18 July.
“We will discuss common challenges such as stability, security, energy and immigration,” he said.
The Labour leader has promised to reduce trade tensions with the European Union, the UK’s biggest trading partner.
But he also promised that his government would never reverse Brexit or try to rejoin the European single market, saying it simply wanted to make “Brexit work” – his campaign slogan.
The extent of possible progress to improve existing agreements, concluded after the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU, will nevertheless be quite limited, diplomats in Brussels say on condition of anonymity.
“With a different approach, based on cooperation and without hostility, things will be easier, but not necessarily simpler,” one of them explained.
The post-Brexit agreements of 2020 and 2023 governing trade relations between London and Brussels are “very complex” and “include balances that are difficult to change,” he argues.
“Everything that was feasible [en termes d’aménagements] has already been done, or has already been proposed,” adds another diplomat.
Only marginal adjustments remain possible in several areas: rules on the importation of plants or animals, increased exchanges for young people, compliance with certain European standards by British manufacturers, mutual recognition of certain qualifications, etc.
“The atmosphere will change”
Better cooperation on defence and security is also seen as a priority on both sides of the Channel.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday she looked forward to working with Mr Starmer to, among other things, “strengthen European security”. And Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who was just appointed EU foreign policy chief, welcomed “the UK’s commitment to our common security”.
The war in Ukraine and instability in the world, not to mention the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, are all arguments for strengthening this cooperation.
“It is in the interest of the EU, but also of Great Britain,” explained one of the diplomats interviewed by AFP.
For Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a Brussels-based think tank, international instability and the possible return of former US President Donald Trump make defence cooperation “more relevant”.
The UK and 23 of the 27 EU countries are members of NATO, an organisation that has been heavily criticised and described as “obsolete” by Donald Trump.
The various British Conservative governments have politicised the relationship with Brussels to defend the United Kingdom’s “post-Brexit sovereignty”, but the future government of Keir Starmer should adopt a more “rational” attitude, Mark Leonard also judged.
However, he will have to take into account British concerns about immigration: “I think the real red line would be a return to freedom of movement for people, that’s the only clear signal that emerged from the Brexit referendum” in 2016, says Mr Leonard.
The British elections are not, however, currently on the agenda in Brussels, warns Barry Colfer, research director at the Institute of International and European Affairs. “What happens in France or is happening in the US is more central to the EU,” he observes.
Overall, in Brussels, there is a more “optimistic” attitude towards the new government in London, which is expected to be more “pragmatic”, but without expecting any immediate upheaval, according to diplomats.
“The atmosphere will change, but concrete results will take time,” said one of them, while stressing the “availability” of the European side.