Beijing says it was a weather probe that veered off course. An assertion rejected by the American authorities.
It is a misidentified flying object. The Chinese aircraft which flew over the United States for several days before being shot down by the American army on Saturday is still far from having revealed the secrets surrounding its mission. For Washington, no doubt: the device was indeed a “spy balloon”. Beijing, for its part, denies.
American teams deployed off the coast of South Carolina, in the Atlantic Ocean, recovered the first debris from the balloon on Monday, February 6. These elements will perhaps make it possible to unravel the mystery of this overview with heavy diplomatic consequences. Franceinfo goes around the questions that arise about this case.
1What is this ball?
One thing is certain: the ball was of Chinese origin. Beijing confirmed this, while ensuring that the aircraft was intended for scientific research, particularly in meteorology. For its part, the Pentagon asserts that it was a “spy balloon” sent from China “in an attempt to monitor strategic sites” in the USA.
In support of their accusations, US officials point out that the size of the balloon corresponded to that of three buses, or about 27 meters, reports the agency Associated Press*. A size much larger than weather balloons, which generally do not exceed six meters in diameter, writes the magazine Time*.
It is still too early to determine the observation capabilities of the balloon, which was flying at an altitude of approximately 18 km, according to information from the Pentagon. The first debris was collected on the surface on Monday, but thehe weather conditions have so far made it impossible to carry out underwater recovery operations. The White House claims not to have “intent to return” these debris to China, but to study them carefully. This phase of searching for clues should in any case be crucial: the images taken of the aircraft before its destruction suggested imposing equipment attached to the balloon, in particular solar panels.
2 Is the use of intelligence balloons new?
The first use of such a device dates back to 1794. A hot air balloon had been used during the battle of Fréjus by France, and had even contributed to the victory against the Austrian army, says Le Figaro. Tethered ground-bound balloons were also launched during World War I. Several programs around these devices were initiated during the Cold War, but the device ended up losing its interest in the face of more efficient satellites and spy planes.
3Is this a widespread spying technique?
With time and technological advances, this method is less and less used to obtain information. “We wonder what a spy balloon could bring in terms of intelligence to China, since we know that they have a fleet of satellites that revolve around the Earth”observes Laurence Nardon, head of the North America program of the French Institute of International Relations, with France Culture.
Why then would China employ such unobtrusive equipment? Firstly because balloons have evolved and “can now weigh less, (…) be smaller, cheaper and easier to launch” than satellites, analyzes Peter Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force officer, for CNN*. Also, because a balloon can for example “to stay above US nuclear sites longer and listen to radio communications around these sites, which a spy satellite could not have done”believes Laurence Nardon.
Beijing has reportedly used this technology several times in recent years, says a senior US official quoted by AFP: “Chinese surveillance balloons passed briefly over the United States at least three times during the previous administration [sous le mandat de Donald Trump]and once early in this administration as far as we know, but never this long.”
4 What information could China seek with its balloon?
The balloon notably flew over the state of Montana, where nuclear weapons are stored. Washington downplayed the aircraft’s ability to retrieve sensitive information, but according to Matthew Kroenig, a former US Department of Defense official, Beijing could benefit from this operation. “This gave China the ability to better map US intercontinental ballistic missile silos for future targets, and to gauge the US response.”analyzes the specialist for AFP.
5 Has Beijing overstepped international law?
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Saturday denounced a “unacceptable violation” of American sovereignty. The law is indeed on Washington’s side: the International Civil Aviation Organization* recalls that “Each State has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory”. This power extends over the entire territory of a country and up to 20 kilometers beyond its coasts. But international law does not set the limit of airspace in terms of altitude.
In any case, according to the Chicago Convention of 1944, which sets the rules for international air transport, “no aircraft that can fly without a pilot can fly over the territory of a Contracting State, except by special authorization of that State and in accordance with the conditions thereof”. Beijing finally recognized that this balloon, affected by the winds, “deviated from its trajectory” and expressed his “regret” for this violation “involuntary” of American airspace.
6 What impact will this incident have on relations between Beijing and Washington?
China has already expressed, on Sunday, her “strong dissatisfaction” after the destruction of the device. The country’s foreign minister said that Beijing “to [réservait] the right” to replicate.
The case comes against a backdrop of high tensions between China and the United States, which culminated in August 2022 with Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, former Speaker of the House of Representatives. This episode of the balloon is likely to remove any prospect of imminent relaxation. The head of the American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, who was to fly to China on Friday on the occasion of an unprecedented visit since 2018, postponed his trip because of the estrangement linked to this file.
In the medium term, some experts expect Beijing to step up intimidation operations in the South China Sea. “They are going to want to show that they have a large military arsenal“, assured franceinfo E on Sundaymmanuel Véron, doctor in geography and specialist in contemporary China. This specialist also imagines that Chinese officials could launch a wave of “cyberattacks against American companies or political figures”in order to “flattering Chinese nationalism”.
* Links followed by an asterisk are in English.