Did you hear the rumor spread by Erin O’Toole?
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
According to the Conservative leader, Minister Steven Guilbeault will end the use of oil in 18 months. A demonic smile on his lips, possibly.
We can already imagine the scene. Miles and miles of abandoned vehicles along the highways. Drilling sites deserted like a bad Western setting. A nation in ruins.
Politicians are like their lies: some are more believable than others…
What was Mr. O’Toole thinking when he posted such a crazy video?
I start from the assumption that it is rational and pursues some objective.
The video cannot be intended for a normal citizen. No, it must be used to mobilize the enraged fringe of conservatives and to woo those who have lost their way with Maxime Bernier.
But whatever its purpose, the rant shows that Mr. O’Toole’s personal problems are hurting his party.
The Conservatives have just lost two elections in which they obtained more votes than the Liberals. Our voting system put them at a disadvantage – their support was too concentrated in the West.
Winning Alberta ridings with 85% of the vote, instead of 75%, will not return them to power. They need to make inroads elsewhere, especially in Ontario’s suburbs.
But unfortunately for the Conservatives, Mr. O’Toole is on borrowed time. Since his defeat in October, activists have wanted to fire him. To keep his job, he courted the hardliners of the party. Even if it means alienating the voters he would need to become prime minister.
According to Mr. O’Toole, Steven Guilbeault sows “division” and is “absolutely out of touch with reality”.
In fact, this hat suits the Conservative leader very well.
Mr. Guilbeault, Canada’s Environment Minister, has promised to cap greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector within two years. I repeat: they would only cease to increase. Nothing radical if we want to decarbonize the economy. This is only the inevitable first step.
In their climate plan, the Conservatives say they are aiming for carbon neutrality. However, it is impossible to reduce emissions while increasing them. Either the attack on Mr. Guilbeault is dishonest or this plan is misleading.
The week that Mr. O’Toole was alarmed for the camera, three beefy reports came out. They are signed by people the Conservatives used to listen to, like bankers and insurers…
The first comes from the International Energy Agency (IEA), reputed to be closer to industry than environmentalists. He points out that if countries meet their climate targets, the oil market will change quickly.
Canada has increased its oil production by 29% since 2010. Nearly half of these barrels are now exported.
However, with each passing year, this adventure becomes more risky. The price could go down and Canada will suffer. True, our oil sands have become less dirty – emissions per barrel have fallen by 32% since 1990. But they are still more expensive and polluting than the traditional deposits of many competing countries.
This threat is also raised by a second report, co-authored by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Like the IEA analysts, these people know how to use their calculators and do not have the main objective of destroying the economy.
They conclude that the later the energy transition comes, the more painful the shock will be, and not just for the planet.
Contrary to what Mr. O’Toole’s video suggests, oil and gas do little to heat our homes. No less than 83% of the country’s electricity comes from clean sources, one of the highest rates.
The IEA recommends doing more, including integrating provincial power grids to circulate this energy. This requires building bridges. However, Mr. O’Toole does the opposite. He feeds the anger of the West by inventing threats and dreaming of a physically impossible world where we would produce always more oil without disturbing the climate.
And the third gear? He comes from Munich Re. The reinsurance giant. He reports that financial losses related to natural disasters have increased and that this trend will worsen.
My colleague Jean-Philippe Décarie spoke about it a few days ago. In 2021, fully insured losses in Canada amounted to $2 billion, he said. And we do not include the other direct and indirect costs of the unruly climate.
Of course, it is possible to discuss the means to be taken. But that requires not discrediting yourself from the start by distorting the facts to such an extent. And that also requires projecting a bit into the future. Shortly after being elected leader, in April 2021, Mr. O’Toole was bold in urging his party to recognize the crisis and take action, including pricing carbon. But since his defeat, he has regressed.
His horizon is shrinking. He thinks above all about saving his own skin. And to appease the putschists, he is ready to risk a lot. Like the credibility of his party, and also his own.