The question is delicate to say the least. Does global population growth threaten the climate? In this context, should we stop having children? If the debate is often launched in an awkward way, it nonetheless allows us to highlight the abysmal disparities that exist on the scale of humanity, but also the magnitude of our carbon footprint and our impact on resources of the planet.
For two weeks now, the international community gathered at the 26e United Nations climate conference (COP26) discusses the means to be taken to avoid climate collapse: reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport and electricity production, protect forests, develop energy renewables and carbon sequestration technologies, play the market rules to accelerate the transition, etc. One question, however, raises little interest: the uninterrupted growth of the world’s population, which rose from 1.5 billion people in 1900 to more than 7.8 billion people in 2021.
The scientific literature on the subject is also scarce. A study published in 2017 in the scientific journal devoted to the environment Environmental Research Letters concluded, however, that having “one less child” could have “a considerable effect” in reducing GHG emissions. It should be noted, however, that these conclusions only applied to “developed countries” and that they used a calculation method that has since been criticized, in part because it assumed that a child born today would have a fingerprint. carbon which would be part of a historical trend of continuous increase.
Holder of the Canada Research Chair in Climate Change Mitigation and the Rainforest at McGill University, Catherine Potvin believes that the results of this study bear witness above all to the immense disparities that exist in the world when the time comes. analyze the environmental footprint of a human being. “Not all humans are created equal. In the case of the indigenous communities with which I work in Latin America, a family of six or eight has less effect on our planet than a couple of Quebeckers. It all depends on people’s way of life and their voracity in the use of resources and energy. “
The numbers prove him right. While per capita GHG emissions average 4.5 metric tonnes per year globally, according to the World Bank (2018 data), those of a Canadian exceed 15.5 tonnes. This is twice the emissions of a Chinese, three times that of a French, eight times that of an Indian and 22 times the average for an inhabitant of sub-Saharan Africa.
Overconsumption
These data do not tell the whole story, since they do not fully take into account our consumption of goods, our production of waste or the repercussions of our diet, which reserves a large place for proteins of animal origin. In fact, if all humans consumed like Canadians, humanity would have already consumed all the resources that the planet could generate in 2021, starting on March 14. This is called the “day of passing”.
It is therefore urgent to be aware of this, insists Mr.me Potvin. “The real problem is our consumption of resources. This is what we have to tackle, because our model is not sustainable. Every baby we deliver becomes a resource-consuming ogre, as we collectively are. But if we changed course, it would be very different for our children, and we would manage to get out of it. “
However, this change is still not in sight, deplores the one who has been studying climate issues for nearly 40 years. “We refuse to question our way of life, while we constantly criticize China. But a Chinese citizen consumes much less resources than every Quebecer. We are obese in energy consumption, but we prefer to point someone else than to question ourselves. “
Professor in the Department of Economics at UQAM, Charles Séguin also believes that in the West, the solution to the climate crisis does not lie in no longer having children. “If we don’t have children, the results of this action will be very slow, since it is more in adulthood that emissions become important. In that case, you might as well take your own life, since the results will be faster. We can act faster by decarbonizing our economies, in particular by directly attacking sources, including fossil fuels. These still meet 80% of the world’s energy needs.
“The problem is not so much the number of children as the lifestyle of rich nations, which is unsustainable. It is possible and more than necessary to change the overconsumption habits of rich nations, which must also help developing countries to succeed in making a green and fair transition, ”adds Greenpeace climate campaign spokesperson Patrick Bonin. . Citing data published in October by the World Inequality Database, he recalls that the richest 10% of citizens on the planet are responsible for nearly 50% of emissions linked to consumption.
Growing population
The fact remains that the world’s population continues to grow. It should reach 9 billion people in 2050, then 11 billion in 2100. In this context, it would be essential to help the regions of the world where population growth is the strongest, underlines Solène Lardoux, associate professor at the Department of Demography of the University of Montreal.
“The fertility rate is associated with a glaring problem of inequality in the world. Today, one in four births is in sub-Saharan Africa, where people live on average on less than $ 1.90 a day. We must therefore work with them, to give them access to education and quality jobs, but also to give women the opportunity to have fewer children. If we acted thus, they would follow the same demographic movement that we have known in the countries of the North ”, explains Mme Lardoux.
Even if the rate of growth of the world population is already showing signs of slowing down, it is just as important to collectively change our modes of transport, land use planning and our diet, to adopt a “plant-based” diet. , explains Équiterre’s Executive Director, Colleen Thorpe. An aspiration which is also included in the preliminary version of the next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The unequivocal warnings of climate science have yet to provoke the necessary questioning, so much so that a part of the young people despair more than ever of the future. According to a study conducted among 10,000 young people (16 to 25 years old) from a dozen countries, the results of which were published in September, two in five young people would now hesitate to have children. Their fear? May climate inaction lead the world to disaster. In addition, no less than 56% of respondents even believe that humanity is already “doomed”.