Montreal Minister Steven Guilbeault promises that it will be demonstrated next year that the Liberal plan truly makes it possible to reduce Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, without the need for a pandemic. His re-election is at stake, he said.
“I think Canadians will judge us harshly if they do not see progress in the fight against climate change. With good reason, I would say,” says the Minister of Environment and Climate Change of the Trudeau government.
Braving the light rain on Thursday, Steven Guilbeault left the building housing the House of Commons, between two votes, to answer questions from the Duty. His government had just confirmed that, despite the federal price on carbon, the country’s GHG emissions continued to increase in 2022, compared to the previous year.
Far from being bad news, the observed increase of 10 Mt is weaker than the expected post-pandemic rebound. In addition, certain important climate measures were not yet in force, he explains, and the federal price on carbon (which does not apply to Quebec) has increased since that time.
All this leads him to say that Thursday’s report will be the last to report a net increase in GHGs. Starting next year, he assures, the public will have confirmation that Canada is finally managing to reduce its emissions, despite the strength of its oil and gas sector.
“We anticipate that in 2023, we will really start to see a reduction, year after year, to be able to achieve the objective [intérimaire de réduction] by 2026,” he promises bluntly.
This data will not be available before the publication of the next annual report. “I’m ready to tell you now, and you’ll remind me next year. »
Evidence for the elections
This meeting is planned at a pivotal moment: federal elections must take place shortly after, i.e. no later than the fall of 2025. The favorite in national polls, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, announces that he will make it a plebiscite on the carbon tax introduced by the Liberals.
Unlike the other opposition parties, the Conservatives deny that this measure could have any benefit for the environment. Pierre Poilievre also chants a slogan on a regular basis which refers to his project to “take the axe” into the carbon price.
“After nine years, Justin Trudeau has never met a single one of his own emissions targets. Its punitive carbon tax is a tax plan, not an environmental plan,” specifies the spokesperson for the leader of the official opposition, Marion Isabeau-Ringuette.
The Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party (NDP) for their part described Thursday’s report as bad news, very skeptical of seeing Canada reduce its GHGs by 40% to 45% for 2030, compared to the 2005 level.
“We have to change people’s habits by increasing the cost of carbon, I completely agree with that,” agrees Bloc MP Mario Simard. But as long as Canada’s entire economic strategy is based on gas and oil, we will not move forward. »
NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice is on the same wavelength. “It’s difficult to prove that the price on carbon works when at the same time you waste 34 billion to buy a pipeline that will triple tar sands production,” he said in reference to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. , entered service this week.
A challenge of consistency
Minister Steven Guilbeault recalls that his government is preparing to publish regulations by the fall that will set a federal emissions cap for the oil and gas sector. According to the plan, it will take until 2030 to see all the requirements of this cap fully in force.
“I think all societies are faced with this challenge of coherence,” agrees the former environmental activist, when asked about the apparent contradiction between Canadian climate targets and the inauguration of a pipeline to increase oil production. .
“Then, what we try to do is to ensure that all the actions we take are consistent with our climate action. […] We have developed a new tool at the office that we can call a kind of “climate and environment lens.” All projects that go through the cabinet will have to be subject to an assessment of their impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. [et] on biodiversity. »
Such a pilot project has already been launched in six ministries, and should extend to the entire federal government and its agencies. The minister does not immediately specify whether the Trans Mountain project, launched before his arrival with the Liberals, would have passed the test of this “climate lens”.
With Alexander Shields