At the end of the 26e UN climate conference (COP26), the world is still heading towards a warming that could exceed 2.7 ° C. For Quebec, the increase would be even greater, which will cause a significant increase in heat waves, health problems and costs for a system already under pressure, not to mention the impacts of rising water levels and erosion. coastal. However, the province is very ill-prepared to face a crisis that is sure to hit hard.
“We must learn to better manage risks, and we clearly do not talk about it enough”, summarizes the director general of the climate research consortium Ouranos, Alain Bourque. The latter has been repeating, for years, that Quebec must certainly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, but also prepare to suffer the impacts of climate upheavals, which obviously do not depend solely on the carbon footprint of the country. province.
Mr. Bourque reminds that, regardless of the magnitude of the average global warming, it will be more pronounced in southern Quebec, and even more pronounced in more northern regions. Assuming that the current climate trend continues, the global rise would be at least + 2.7 ° C, compared to the pre-industrial era. For Quebec, the increase would rather amount to + 3.5 ° C, or even 4 ° C, for the southern portion of the territory, which is the most inhabited. Further north, this warming could reach + 5.4 ° C.
In addition, if the voluntary commitments made by the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement are not respected, the rise in mercury for the regions which regroup the majority of the Quebec population risks exceeding + 5.2 ° C, warns Alain Bourque.
These forecasts worry the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ), underlines the scientific advisor Céline Campagna. She cites as an example the amplification of the phenomenon of heat waves, which are already causing deaths in Quebec. From an annual average of three days at more than 32 ° C a decade ago, we could go to more than 20 days by 2040, then to nearly 50 days before the end of the century. And even if there is a lack of data to predict the apprehended deaths in Quebec, Mr.me Campagna cites a pan-Canadian assessment which estimates that, “by the end of the century, without effective adaptation measures, we could see 400% to 500% more heat wave deaths in the country”.
The president of the Quebec Association of Physicians for the Environment (AQME), Claudel Pétrin-Desrosiers, specifies that heat waves “can also worsen several health problems and lead people to seek treatment”. She cites as an example the vulnerability of people with mental health problems, which may be exacerbated, “in a context where services are already limited”.
The increase in extreme weather events, such as floods, also risks increasing mental health problems, underline Mr.me Pétrin-Desrosiers and Mme Campagna. People who have experienced the trauma of a flood are much more likely to suffer from depression, sleep disturbances, anxiety, or even “post-traumatic shock”, explains the president of the AQME.
Mme Campagna adds that various other health problems are likely to increase due to the climate crisis. This is the case with pollen allergies, such as ragweed, which affects one in five people in Quebec. However, this plant produces more pollen, and more allergen, when the temperature increases, which also has the effect of increasing its distribution area. “Health costs risk exploding,” warns the INSPQ advisor.
A system ready?
The long list of health issues linked to climate change also raises the question of the capacity of our health system to cope with them. “We do not know all the impacts and costs when we add up the various environmental disturbances. This is a matter of concern. Moreover, at the international level, we are increasingly asking ourselves the question of the preparation of our health systems. Will they be able to meet the additional demand for care? The question also arises in Quebec, ”argues Claudel Pétrin-Desrosiers.
“We lack financial resources to support the adaptation of the health network and organizations working for the health and safety of the population,” says Céline Campagna. “Adaptation is very important, however. We talk less about it, because we are emphasizing the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But the same effort should be made to adapt, because we can begin to calculate that a strong adaptation would reduce the impacts, for example in health. “
A point of view shared by Alain Bourque, who also cites the very serious issues looming for the coastal regions of the province, which will be subject to the rise in water levels and an intensification of the effects of winter storms, due to decrease in ice cover. These are all factors that will worsen the problem of coastal erosion for a long time, even if we manage to stabilize the global climate. “It’s gone, and it will continue. The rise in sea level will take at least another hundred years to stabilize once the climate has stabilized, ”he warns.
The general manager of Ouranos therefore pleads for better planning. “We have to rethink land use planning as part of the renewal of roads, buildings, etc. There will be some extremely difficult decisions that will have to be made. In some cases, buildings will have to be moved. It may be expensive, but, if we do it in an organized way, it will cost less than doing it in the context of crisis management. “
The Ministry of Transport has also identified no less than 273 road segments now considered vulnerable. The government therefore wishes to launch an unprecedented “intervention program” to try to protect the infrastructures of the Bas-Saint-Laurent, Gaspésie and Îles-de-la-Madeleine regions. And we will also have to prepare for the effects of the rising waters. According to a simulation posted online by “Climate Action Tracker”, a global warming of + 2.7 ° C could eventually engulf a large part of the Magdalen Islands, the Limoilou and Beauport sectors. , in Quebec, but also around Lake Saint-Pierre and the Trois-Rivières region.
What should be the adaptation priorities for Quebec? Does the government plan to increase funding for adaptation? The office of the Minister of the Environment, Benoit Charette, did not respond to questions from the To have to.