Climate signals may be more and more alarming, but dependence on fossil fuels is not abating. As a result, global emissions from the energy sector hit a record high in 2021, data released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed on Tuesday. In short, the world has not responded to the call for a recovery that is in line with the fight against the climate crisis.
The energy sector, which is the main emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the world, experienced a significant rebound last year, after the decline attributable to the impacts of the pandemic. Global CO emissions2 of the sector increased by 6% compared to 2020, to reach 36.3 billion tonnes of GHGs.
This level of emissions represents the “highest level ever reached”, according to the IEA, since it surpassed the previous record, reached in 2019: 36.1 billion tonnes. Since the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, emissions from the sector have increased by 69%. They have also grown by 5% since the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. And when emissions related to energy production (fugitive emissions and methane) are added, the balance sheet of the sector reached 40.8 billion tonnes in 2021.
Coal
The “extremely rapid” economic recovery, weather and energy market conditions have led to a growth in the burning of coal, the worst fossil fuel, over the past year.
Globally, coal is responsible for around 40% of the growth in CO emissions2 of the energy sector, with a historic level of 15.3 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted in 2021 (compared to 9.2 billion tonnes in 2001). Natural gas also exceeded the 2019 level of emissions, with a total of 7.5 billion tonnes.
Oil emissions reached 10.7 billion tonnes in 2021 (the same as 2012), down from pre-pandemic levels, mainly due to the slower recovery of the transport sector. In a report published in February, however, the IEA predicted a recovery in global demand this year, which could push demand to more than 100 million barrels per day.
General increase
Virtually all regions of the planet saw an increase in emissions from the energy sector in 2021, the IEA points out. In Brazil and India, growth was around 10%, while it was 7% in the United States and Europe, and 5% in China.
China’s energy sector emissions alone increased by 750 million tonnes between 2019 and 2021, mostly due to continued “economic growth” despite the pandemic. According to data from the IEA, the rise in emissions in China has therefore canceled out the drop of 570 million tonnes observed worldwide between 2019 and 2021.
Despite the marked rebound in the use of fossil fuels responsible for the climate crisis, renewable energies and nuclear have experienced strong growth in 2021. Nevertheless, underlines the IEA, countries have not responded to calls for a post-pandemic recovery that is in step with the fight against the climate crisis. In documents published on Tuesday, the IEA therefore calls for increased investment in the development of renewable energies, in order to “keep alive” the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050.
Carbon neutrality in 2050?
To hope to achieve this target and thus limit global warming to a viable threshold, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that global emissions should be reduced by 45% by 2030, compared to to 2010 levels, but also reduce emissions to zero by 2050.
However, everything indicates for the moment that the warming will continue. In a report published in August 2021, the IPCC also pointed out that the rise in temperatures should reach 1.5°C by 2030 or 2040. This has already reached 1.1°C compared to the pre-industrial era. , while the climate commitments of the States lead us towards a warming of at least 2.7°C. The most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement on the climate, signed in 2015, is however not to exceed 1.5°C
In its most recent report, published at the beginning of March, the IPCC estimates that humanity is on the way to annihilating its chances of maintaining a viable future. Global warming has already caused “irreversible” and increasingly difficult to manage impacts, while we are simply not ready to face the impacts of the climate crisis which are expected to worsen in the coming years. .
If the current climate trajectory continues, the IPCC predicts that the world as we know it would become downright “unrecognizable”, with a “decline in life expectancy” and “a decline in the quality of life” in several regions. of the planet. The “state of health and well-being” of the population would thus be “substantially reduced” and this state would continue to deteriorate over the following decades. The IPCC also warns of a “major” increase in food prices, conflicts and climate migration.
The next IPCC report is due out in April. It will focus on the measures to be taken to reduce global GHG emissions and thus tackle climate change.