The least expensive energy is the energy that can be saved, we often hear. And in Quebec, there would be a lot to do, since we overconsume energy, much more than elsewhere.
What is it exactly? The question is important, bearing in mind that the global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions requires in particular a reduction in the energy consumed, if we assume that the clean energy of some replaces the fossil energy of others.
I make the disclaimer: the potential for energy savings in Quebec is great, but considerably less than we thought, according to recent studies.
First, the observation: yes, Quebec consumes a lot of energy. All things considered, we consume as much as the United States and more than Nordic countries like Norway or Sweden. The unit used is the gigajoule (GJ), which compares hydroelectricity as well as fuel oil, natural gas and automotive gasoline.
In Quebec, therefore, annual consumption – all sectors combined – amounts to 195 GJ per capita, against 198 in the United States, 138 in Sweden and 117 in Germany, according to a recent analysis by expert Pierre-Olivier Pineau, from HEC Montreal.
Consolation prize: Alberta is at 517 GJ per capita, mainly because of its large needs for oil extraction, but also because of the high consumption of its road vehicles.
If we consider only the residential sector, Quebec and Canada are also at peaks, although the gap with other countries is less marked (35 GJ in Quebec and the United States, against 33 in Norway or 4 in Cuba).
The reasons for our overconsumption are quite simple: our cold winters cause consumption to explode, but in addition, the very low prices of our electricity have attracted energy-intensive industries, such as aluminum smelters, not to mention that these low prices are a disincentive to save.
A comparison: Quebecers pay for their residential electricity six times less than the Germans, or 7.6 cents per kilowatt hour against 33.4 cents. Why better insulate our homes if the investment turns out to be too long to recover, given the low price of electricity?
In fact, Hydro-Québec has just updated its forecast for potential energy savings, which it had not done for 10 years. And it notes, on the basis of two studies (243 pages) by the firms Technosim and J: Harvey, that the potential for energy savings is much less important than previously believed. One of the main reasons: the high costs of insulation.
In 2011, Hydro-Québec believed it had savings potential of 29.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) in five years, all sectors combined. However, this potential has just fallen to 21.1 TWh, Technosim calculates, ie a decline of 8.6 TWh or 29%.
By adding industries that have signed risk-sharing contracts, the potential jumps to 24.5 TWh.
The reduction in the savings potential of 8.6 TWh is major. It is almost equivalent to the annual energy of the Massachusetts contract (9.45 TWh), which made headlines this week following Maine’s referendum refusal.
The residential sector alone explains a third of this 8.6 TWh drop. And half of this loss of potential in the residential sector is attributable to heating.
This reduction is attributable to the increasingly restricted market for measures with the greatest energy impact, namely those of building insulation. In addition, the costs associated with insulating inaccessible walls and attics are high, further reducing the potential associated with these measures.
“The potential is often difficult to exploit given the complexity of implementing the measures and their significant costs. Hydro-Quebec’s experience tends to show that the savings objectives are difficult to achieve, because the implementation and follow-up costs are often greater than those expected ”, it is written in the Technosim study. .
High efficiency heat pumps, even in winter, and high efficiency windows are among the measures that still have gains1.
The total savings potential of 24.5 TWh – all sectors combined – is equivalent to approximately 14% of Hydro-Québec’s energy demand. In recent years, Hydro says it has been able to realize 30-40% of the savings potential, since there are market barriers and sometimes profitability among consumers.
For 10 years, Hydro-Québec has thus enabled energy savings of only 4 TWh. The state-owned company now wants to double this annual average of 0.4 TWh to bring it down to 0.8 TWh within 10 years, for a total of 8 TWh.
The crown corporation believes it will be able to do this because its surpluses are expected to dry up around 2026. The cost of these surpluses is around 3 cents per kilowatt hour and new supplies are expected to drop the price to around 5 cents per kilowatt hour. which would make certain savings measures more profitable.
These 8 TWh of savings will not prevent Hydro-Quebec from needing 20 TWh more within 10 years and therefore from launching calls for tenders for wind power or other, supports the spokesperson. Marc-Antoine Pouliot. The first call, scheduled for December 2021, will be for around 2.3 TWh, including wind power2.
In short, saving energy is not the panacea we could hope for, at least for now. Our prices are just too low.
Consult the studies on the energy saving potential (Hydro-Québec)
1. Note that the Hilo smart thermostats program is not part of it, since it is a demand management measure, especially at the peak, and not energy saving.
2. Hydro-Québec Production may eventually participate in the distributor’s calls for tenders, especially if the 9.45 TWh contract to Massachusetts is canceled following the referendum process in Maine and court proceedings.