We expected it, but the turn is confirmed. In all likelihood, after years of uncertainty, France is preparing to reinvest in nuclear power in order to achieve its greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Already on October 12, President Emmanuel Macron announced an investment of one billion euros for the construction of mini nuclear power stations as part of a vast investment plan called France 2030. Two weeks later, a voluminous report published last Monday by the operator of the electricity network RTE concludes after two years of investigation that, if France wants to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 and reduce the bill, it will not be able to do without nuclear, an energy that does not emit not a gram of CO2.
This about-face comes at a time when the price of gas is exploding and in a context where the rebellion against wind turbines continues in the regions. Six months before the presidential election, the best-placed candidates in the polls are all proposing the revival of nuclear power. On October 12, the president himself mentioned the construction of six new new generation reactors (EPR 2). The official announcement should be made by the end of the year at the latest, according to the daily Le Figaro.
Everything indicates that the 600-page document released last week will pave the way for this decision. “It’s a 180-degree turn for Macron, but also for the manager of the electricity network, who until recently only defended renewable energies,” explains Fabien Bouglé, author of the book. Nuclear: the hidden truths in the face of the illusion of renewable energies (Rocher editions). But, it is also the confirmation that Emmanuel Macron understood that we could never achieve carbon neutrality without nuclear power. “
The cheapest scenario
In this report commissioned two years ago by former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, forty experts propose six scenarios ranging from the complete phase-out of nuclear power to its development. The three least costly scenarios are those where France would relaunch its nuclear power plants by building new reactors on existing sites. Between the cheapest scenario, which proposes the construction of 14 reactors, and the most expensive, which mainly relies on solar panels and wind turbines, the shortfall is 21 billion euros per year.
To cope with the reduction of fossil fuels, the increase in electric cars and the reindustrialization objective declared by the government, the study takes for granted that it will be necessary to increase the production of electricity by 35%. twenty years ago. A cautious projection since, according to the International Energy Agency, world demand could grow by 37% by 2040. For this, experts believe that France will not be able to do without renewable energies either.
In the meantime, the report asks the government not to close any more power stations as Emmanuel Macron did last year with that of Fessenheim, which produced 2% of French electricity. The loss is estimated by The European Scientist to 1 billion euros per lost year of operation. We know that the lifespan of French power plants, which are only forty years old on average, could easily reach sixty.
Emmanuel Macron’s about-face is not unrelated to the economic situation and the sharp increase in gas prices, believes Fabien Bouglé. “This inflation due to the economic recovery has shown the failure of the German model which, by relying on wind power, is now dependent on gas-fired power stations to compensate for the periods when it does not sell. On the contrary, the French model appears more solid and less subject to the vagaries of the economy. “
Brussels procrastinates
The least costly scenario examined by RTE would involve the construction of 14 EPRs instead of 6. Beyond that, the objective of reducing the share of nuclear power to 50% of electricity production by 2050 should be ignored. up to 70% today. However, many wonder if the French nuclear industry, which had not built power plants since 1997, still has the capacities and skills to embark on the construction of such a nuclear fleet. Especially since, unlike the two Chinese EPRs and that of Hinkley Point C in the United Kingdom, the only project underway in France, that of the Flamanville prototype, has suffered many delays.
“We may have lost skills, but one in four plants built in the world has been built in France,” recalls Fabien Bouglé. At the time of the Messmer Plan, in the 1970s, three plants were inaugurated per year. Of course, security measures today are much more complex. But, unlike at that time, there would be no need to create new plants. We would only have to add a reactor to sites and to a transport network that already exist. “
In Brussels, where a fierce struggle is waged, we are impatiently awaiting the decision of the Commission which should decide whether nuclear energy will be eligible for the billions of euros of “green” investments foreseen in the recovery plan. About ten countries, to which the Netherlands have recently been added, are asking for it since this energy does not produce CO2. At the end of the last European summit on Friday, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, cited nuclear and natural gas among the energy sources of the energy mix of tomorrow, but without saying more. “Opinions are very divided,” told the Financial Times the Commissioner of Taxation, Mairead McGuinness.
A presidential issue
The situation obliges the president to decide this question more quickly than envisaged since he had initially wished to wait for the end of the construction of the EPR of Flamanville, towards the end of 2022. But, the policy does not wait. The presidential candidate for Europe Ecology-The Greens, which mainly focuses on energy savings, announced a report “manipulated by the government”. According to him, “what the President of the Republic and his government want to do, which are obsessed with nuclear power, is to show that we cannot act on the control of consumption in order to be able to impose the idea of building ten EPRs. additional ”. On the contrary, the right-wing deputy (LR) Julien Aubert believes that France has “lost ten years” by not investing in power stations that make it possible to produce “cheap” electricity.
In France, the subject has already become an issue of the presidential campaign. If only rebellious France and environmentalists propose the complete exit from nuclear power, on the other hand, the camp of its supporters ranges from the Communists to the National Rally, through the left sovereignist candidate Arnaud Montebourg as well as the candidates of the traditional right. (LR), without forgetting the possible candidate Éric Zemmour. The debate has only just begun.