Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier recently suggested citizens prepare for “significant inconvenience” in the upcoming winter due to the anticipated gas shortage due to Russia’s dwindling supply.
Posted at 12:00 p.m.
Already, the City of Hanover has announced that it will no longer provide hot water in public buildings, and no more lighting at night in the town hall and in the museums.
In this country, gas plays a critical role: it is used to generate electricity, to heat spaces and water, and to run many industries producing goods exported all over the world.
To be deprived of it can only lead to a certain paralysis of economic and social life, with a Germany which depends for a great deal on a supplier which has proved to be unreliable, Russia, a country which does not share its democratic values.
As many of Germany’s allies had long predicted, Moscow has decided to exploit its gas for political purposes: to use Europe’s dependence on its gas to try to divide it in order to ease sanctions. taken against him because of his invasion of Ukraine.
While this is the worst energy crisis in modern history, it is not unprecedented. It strongly recalls that of the United States during the 1970s, when the presidency of Jimmy Carter (1976-1980) was dominated by energy issues.
It is of interest for Europeans to review the similarities between this time and what is announced for the next winter.
In 1977, President Carter delivered a televised address to the nation on a topic that most of his predecessors had hardly touched on: energy. According to him, this issue had become the most important for the nation after the war.
He indicated that Washington should take binding measures to reduce energy consumption, which at the time came mainly from abroad. He called on citizens to lower the temperature of the thermostat in the winter and set an example by wearing woolen sweaters in the White House.
He added that the country could not live in an energy dependence which subjected it to possible blackmail from foreign suppliers, which would slow down the functioning of industries.
He stressed the importance of making more aggressive use of renewable energies, including solar. President Carter will even install a solar panel on the roof of the White House.
[Mon plan] demands that we make sacrifices and changes in our lives. To some extent, the sacrifices will be painful. They will lead to higher costs and inconvenience for everyone. But these sacrifices […] are necessary.
President Jimmy Carter
These demands for “sacrifices” will not be well received in the United States. President Carter will, unsurprisingly, be limited to one term.
Significant drop in gas consumption
Mr. Carter’s words seem particularly appropriate for the situation that will play out next winter in Europe. The International Energy Agency reports that even if all the gas pipelines supplying Europe operated at maximum capacity, even if we were able to import as much liquefied natural gas as possible, particularly from the United States, gas supplies would not will not be sufficient during the winter.
It will absolutely be necessary to reduce demand, which puts the ball in the court of citizens and industries. Europe has set itself voluntary targets of 15%.
If this goal is achievable in some countries less dependent on Russian gas, it will be quite a challenge for countries that are more dependent on it, such as Germany.
To get through this crisis without too much trouble, Europeans will need a lot of luck: wind to operate the wind turbines, thus not consuming gas for electricity. And, of course, mild temperatures.
In the opposite case, with little wind and a cold climate, the winter of 2022-2023 will cause a lot of “significant inconveniences”, deprivations to which the populations of rich countries are very unaccustomed.