Even though the risk of new federal elections has just jumped with the announcement of the end of the agreement between the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the minority Liberal government is not yet doomed. Only a few scenarios would cause its fall as early as the fall, experts explain.
A motion of no confidence at the start of the school year
The government needs to have the confidence of the House at all times. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has already signaled that he will table a motion to withdraw that confidence at the first opportunity, in order to bring down the Trudeau government. He will have the opportunity to do so during an opposition day following the return of Parliament on September 16.
“In this scenario, the question is: can Pierre Poilievre bring together enough NDP and Bloc members to have the support of a majority of elected officials?” analyzes Stéphanie Chouinard, assistant professor of political science at the Royal Military College. For all intents and purposes, the Conservatives need the support of NDP elected officials in addition to that of the Bloc members.
Nothing is less certain. Constantly insulted by Mr. Poilievre, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh did not reveal Thursday whether his party intends to support such a motion. The House leader of the Bloc Québécois, Alain Therrien, for his part opened the door to collaboration with the Trudeau government to ensure its survival, in exchange for a “gain for Quebec.”
A budget vote
Any bill that requests government funds, like any motion on budgetary matters, puts trust in the government at risk. “If Parliament refuses to give the government the financial means, the government falls,” explains Geneviève Tellier, professor of political science at the University of Ottawa.
That means the Trudeau government must find at least one opposition party willing to vote in favour of its next budget, scheduled for the spring. But that’s not all: the government must also have its budget appropriations approved by Parliament three times a year, with the next meeting taking place no later than December 10. Added to that is a possible vote before the end of the year on the fall economic update.
The Prime Minister takes care of it
Although it seems unlikely under the circumstances, the Prime Minister can, on his own initiative, ask the Governor General of Canada to call an election. Justin Trudeau also has other cards up his sleeve to “show the bluff” of opposition parties that do not really want an election, explains Karl Bélanger, President of Traxxion Stratégies.
“One possibility is that the prime minister decides to prorogue Parliament, comes back with a throne speech, which would trigger another round of confidence votes,” imagines the former NDP strategist. Doing so increases the risks of triggering an election campaign.
The natural death of the mandate
If the Prime Minister wishes, if he can find sufficient support for his next budget, and if the opposition parties cannot agree on a motion of non-confidence, then the mandate can run until the end. The law sets the date of the next federal election as October 20, 2025, at the latest. The exact date is the prerogative of the government.