With the end of the agreement between the Liberals and the NDP, Canada is slowly preparing for a new election campaign. It would begin in the spring, according to the most likely scenario.
There are two dates to circle on the calendar.
Towards the end of November, the Trudeau government will table an economic statement. This mini-budget leads to a confidence vote, where a Liberal defeat would lead to the dissolution of Parliament and the start of a campaign. But the opposition parties will think twice before bringing down the government. Because this fall, three provinces will be in an election campaign (British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick). Voters could be in a bad mood if they are called back to the polls so quickly. Especially with a campaign during the Christmas break.
The next scheduled confidence vote would be in early spring, when the budget is tabled. It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Liberals would survive this test.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are leading the polls. They are ready to jump on the campaign bus now.
For the New Democrats, it’s different.
PHOTO PATRICK DOYLE, CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES
Jagmeet Singh, leader of the NDP
Faced with the Liberal minority government, their expectations are now modest.
Thanks to their alliance, they have already cashed in on some gains, such as the 10-day leave for federal workers, the anti-scab law, the dental care program that has already treated nearly 450,000 Canadians, as well as the first version of a national drug insurance plan. A pilot project has been adopted for contraceptives and diabetics.
But the program is likely to stop there, due to its prohibitive cost and opposition from the provinces. According to the New Democratic Party (NDP), the Liberals have done too little for First Nations and for housing.
Mr Singh therefore believed that the gains remaining to be made were limited. And above all, he was beginning to measure the cost of this alliance.
Last spring, the NDP caucus was already discussing whether to tear up this agreement, which was supposed to last until June 2025. In June, MPs were leaning toward this option. And the summer confirmed to them that it was the right thing to do.
During the holidays, they saw the extent of the discontent against the Liberals. The decision became inevitable.
Mr. Singh wanted to send a message a week before the by-elections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona, in Manitoba. They are crucial for him. The former is held by the Liberals. He needs to increase his support there, and dreams of winning it. The latter has belonged to his party since the late 1980s, with the exception of a Conservative interlude between 2011 and 2015. The NDP is getting the heat from the Conservatives, and its association with the unloved Liberals is damaging there.
The rail dispute also contributed to the end of the agreement. By imposing binding arbitration, the Trudeau government set a precedent that could weaken the right to strike.
Mr. Singh saw this as a need to distance himself from Mr. Trudeau. And also an opportunity to contrast with Pierre Poilievre. The Conservative leader poses as a defender of workers. Mr. Singh sends the message that he alone would have defended union members. However, he is careful not to say how he would have resolved the conflict and avoided economic disruption for the entire country.
In NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s video statement, one sentence says it all: “The Liberals are too weak.”
In his eyes, Mr. Trudeau’s defeat is already a foregone conclusion. He is trying to reframe the next electoral confrontation. Mr. Poilievre is the leader and the threat, Mr. Singh says. His new strategy is to pose as a bulwark against the blue right.
In the short term, this will reduce his influence in Parliament. And it reduces the likelihood of an election campaign this fall. Because the New Democrats will need time to crack Mr. Poilievre’s armour. The poll aggregator Canada338 puts their support at 17%, with a margin of error of +/-3%. That’s far behind the Liberals (25%) and the Conservatives (42%). For Mr. Singh, a fall election would be as dangerous as for Mr. Trudeau. Because his future is also at stake.
His maneuver is not without risk. The Liberals will say that Mr. Singh is giving in to the demands of the Conservatives, who challenged him a few days ago to tear up the agreement.
On Wednesday night, Mr. Poilievre challenged him again. He will table a motion to bring down the government as soon as possible. His message to the NDP: if you don’t like the Liberals, be consistent and fire them…
Only one winner emerges from the end of the alliance: the Bloc Québécois. Its leader, Yves-François Blanchet, must welcome all electoral scenarios with serenity. He would have no problem going into the campaign now. But he is in no hurry either. Faced with a minority Liberal government that is weaker than ever, the Bloc could negotiate gains on its priorities such as the purchasing power of seniors, tightening immigration, protecting the French language, as well as more specific issues such as the consequences for forest regions of the federal decree on caribou.
Will the Bloc take advantage of this to once again pretend to be “the adult in the room” and avoid chaotic fall elections in the provinces already campaigning?
On Wednesday, Justin Trudeau accused opposition parties of “playing politics” instead of focusing on the issues. But under a minority government, the two are inseparable. Party-to-party negotiations are required to pass legislation.
From day one of its mandate, any minority government is living on borrowed time. And for the Liberals, the hourglass is almost running out.