In 2017, Emmanuel Macron’s rise to power shook up the French political landscape, shattering a seemingly immutable two-party system dominated by a liberal right and a progressive left. His victory, driven by a promise of renewal, was interpreted as a rejection of the traditional parties and introduced an unprecedented recomposition of power. The Socialist Party and Les Républicains, once pillars of French politics, saw their influence collapse in favor of a catch-all center embodied by La République en Marche, renamed “Renaissance” in 2022.
Last June, in an unexpected move, the French president disrupted the political game again by dissolving the National Assembly. Parliament is now split between three almost equal blocs: the alliance of the main left parties, the pro-Macron center and Republican right, and the far-right National Rally. This reshuffling of the cards marks Act II of his “revolution,” as his 2017 campaign book was titled. This new political landscape reveals a fragmented France, like a polarized National Assembly, where no faction has enough clout to govern alone.
The fact that the far right, long marginalized in the institutions, now holds a quarter of the seats in Parliament is unprecedented and raises concerns about the future of the Republican consensus. But Act III of this revolution is yet to come; it will take shape during the next presidential and legislative elections, scheduled for 2027. Until then, Mr. Macron will have to do everything to ensure the success of the government of the new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier.
Because if this government fails, a new institutional crisis could arise, a crisis whose outcome would be anything but certain. Moreover, if Barnier’s failure is confirmed, Macron’s resignation could no longer be a mere conjecture, but a political necessity.
A government tested by facts
After two weeks of intense negotiations, laborious compromises and political posturing, Prime Minister Michel Barnier finally revealed the composition of his government on Saturday 21 September. The latter reflects the complex political balances of the relative majority on which this government will be able to rely. Of the 19 full ministers appointed, 12 come from the former presidential majority (Ensemble pour la République, Horizons and MoDem), while 4 seats are allocated to the Les Républicains party, formerly expected to obtain a greater share of responsibilities. A minister from the Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI), a centre-right party, as well as a minister from the ranks of the left and another from the right who are not affiliated, complete this cabinet.
Although Les Républicains did not win the majority of posts, as many had expected, the distribution of key portfolios betrays the real political direction of this new government. Thus, this reshuffle seems to lean significantly further to the right than the previous governments of Gabriel Attal and his predecessors. This is reflected not only in the composition of the cabinet, but also in the priorities announced by Michel Barnier.
The new prime minister said he wanted to focus on firm measures to control and reduce immigration, a recurring theme in the discourse of the French right in recent years. Mr. Barnier also stressed the importance of controlling public spending, an imperative to satisfy the Republicans, traditionally opposed to any increase in the tax burden. Michel Barnier also insisted on the need to restore demands within the National Education system, recalling the importance of restoring authority and rigor in the education system, another priority that echoes the expectations of a part of the Republican right.
Finally, he expressed his intention to restore quality public services to the French and to fight against climate change, consensual subjects and through which he hopes to attract the good graces of public opinion and perhaps of a part of the parliamentary left. It remains to be seen whether this government composition, fragile after all, will manage to maintain sufficient cohesion to govern effectively under the pressure of a deeply divided Parliament.
The challenge of governing effectively and autonomously
The Prime Minister is indeed walking a tightrope: he must please the Republicans, without alienating Macron’s centrist base. The first real test for the Barnier government will not be long in coming: the vote on the annual budget, scheduled for October, will be a decisive test for this new coalition. The budget is always a moment of tension for any government, but in the current context of such a divided Assembly, this exercise promises to be even more perilous.
For Michel Barnier, this budget will be much more than a simple financial document: it will be about proving the viability of his government. The majority he has assembled on paper will now have to be translated into action, and each vote will be a real barometer of the strength of the alliances forged. While a rejection in Parliament could precipitate a governmental and institutional crisis, conversely, a success would allow Mr. Barnier to consolidate his authority and reassure the markets as well as France’s European partners, worried about the country’s political instability.
For Michel Barnier to lead the government effectively, pass the budget, and deliver key reforms, the role of President Emmanuel Macron will be crucial. Unable to run again in 2027, Mr Macron faces a historic challenge: preserving the integrity of his political legacy. The success of this task will largely depend on Mr Barnier’s ability to govern effectively and autonomously, while maintaining the cohesion of his majority.
To achieve this, he will have to be hindered as little as possible by the president’s interventions and positions. Emmanuel Macron thus finds himself in a delicate position: on the one hand, he must accompany the transition until the next elections by ensuring the stability of his camp; on the other, he must avoid being a factor of destabilization. Because, if the Barnier government were to fail, the question of a return to the polls could arise more quickly than expected.