Franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
Emmanuel Macron gains four points in one week and passes the 30% mark, after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. He would arrive at the top of the first round of the presidential election ahead of Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Valérie Pécresse, according to a poll by Ipsos-Sopra-Steria for The worldpublished Saturday, March 5.
If purchasing power remains the main concern of the French (52%), the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24, now comes in second place (33%) ahead of the environment (28%) and the health system ( 26%). In total, 90% of respondents are “rather” Where “very worried” the consequences of the war in Ukraine (+2 points in one week), and 76% are faced with “a possible nuclear conflict”.
The outgoing president, now a candidate for re-election, is credited with 30.5% of the voting intentions in the first round, gaining four points compared to the previous survey by the same institute Ipsos-Sopra Steria at the end of February, ahead of the extreme candidates right Marine Le Pen (14.5%, -1 point) and Eric Zemmour (13%, -2). Valérie Pécresse continues to fall (11.5, -1), falling behind the radical left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12%, +0.5).
On the left, the ecologist Yannick Jadot (EELV), is stable at 7.5%, ahead of the communist Fabien Roussel, stable at 4%, the socialist Anne Hidalgo, stable at 2.5% after the abandonment of Christiane Taubira. In the second round, Emmanuel Macron would win against Marine Le Pen (59% against 41%), and more broadly against Eric Zemmour (65% against 35%).
Survey conducted online on March 2 and 3, 2022, among 3,599 people registered on the electoral lists, from a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method. Margin of error between 0.5 and 2 percentage points.