“Emmanuel Macron does not have the same information or the same assessment of information” than the Americans, said Saturday February 12 on franceinfo Galia Ackerman, historian and journalist, specialist in Russia and the post-Soviet space, and this while the Russian invasion in Ukraine is considered potentially imminent by Washington. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken notably mentioned on Saturday “very disturbing signs of Russian escalation”.
franceinfo: How to understand the Ukrainian call for calm?
Galia Ackerman : Ukraine is very worried because the United States has declared, through Mr. Blinken, that the invasion is scheduled for February 16. Mr. Zelensky asks the US government to share with Ukraine the reports of its secret services on which this information is based. This is not to panic, but to understand, because it is still unclear whether this huge concentration of troops is still a bluff, intended to obtain great concessions from the West, or whether Vladimir Putin wants to invade Ukraine . Unfortunately, only one person has the answer to this question, it is Vladimir Putin, who says he does not want to invade Ukraine. But we know very well that on several occasions, the Kremlin regime has denied the obvious.
How to understand that Vladimir Putin tells Washington that he is going to invade Ukraine, but that when he telephones Emmanuel Macron, like today, the Elysée says that there is nothing to suggest that this is what he is going to do ?
Emmanuel Macron does not have the same intelligence or the same assessment of intelligence. At the time, when the American army and the allies invaded Iraq, it was based on the reports of various secret services, American in the first place, that Saddam Hussein had chemical weapons and the intention to use. It turned out to be false, but Iraq was invaded, Saddam Hussein was overthrown, we know the rest. We have to be very careful, even if the Americans say that in three days there will be a big war.
Are the telephone contacts between the different leaders useful?
It depends on how we understand what Putin wants: if he wants Western concessions, if he wants to be considered at the big table again, the lifting of certain sanctions, that’s one thing. If he has decided to put an end to the Ukrainian regime and if he wishes to restore Ukraine under the wing of the Russian big brother, that is another scenario. The diplomatic ballet are useful attempts in the first case: if Vladimir Putin intends to obtain concessions, we can haggle with him. But if Putin decided to invade Ukraine anyway, it won’t work.