franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
Emmanuel Macron is leading the voting intentions in the second round of the 2022 presidential election, according to our Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France, published Thursday, April 14. Before the election deadline of April 24, this poll is updated daily according to the evolution of opinion.
The distance duel between the two finalists does not move the lines for the moment. Without change compared to the result of April 13, Emmanuel Macron, president and candidate for his re-election, is credited with 55% of the voting intentions in the second round, against 45% for Marine Le Pen, his competitor from the National Rally (RN). The margin of error is 3.2 points.
If we examine the carryover of votes between the two rounds, 33% of the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise), who came third in the first round, indicate that the candidate for whom they are most likely to vote in the second round is Emmanuel Macron. They were 37% during the previous measurement. They are still 18% to consider turning to Marine Le Pen and 49% do not express a choice: it is 4 points more compared to the previous measurement.
The voters of Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!) are 9% to indicate that the candidate for whom they are most likely to vote in the second round is Emmanuel Macron, against 78% for Marine Le Pen. They were only 4% to consider voting for the outgoing president during the previous measurement. 13% express no choice.
Among the voters of Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts), the undecided are less numerous: 27% do not express a choice, they were 34% during the last measurement. 61% of Yannick Jadot voters indicate that the candidate for whom they are most likely to vote in the second round is Emmanuel Macron (+2 points), against 12% for Marine Le Pen (+5 points).
Some of the voters of Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) in the first round seem to hesitate: 36% did not express a choice (+8 points compared to the previous measurement) and if they indicate that the candidate for whom they have the more likely to vote in the second round is Emmanuel Macron at 48%, they are only 16% to consider voting Marine Le Pen while they were 25% during the previous measurement.
Ten days before the second ballot, 72% of French people questioned are sure that they will vote (range: between 70 and 74%). A figure slightly lower than the effective participation rate during the second round of the 2017 presidential election (74.6%). Of those who are certain to vote, 85% say they have made their choice and that it will be final, while 15% believe that their vote can still change.
Few of Emmanuel Macron’s voters have doubts: 91% say their choice is final, only 9% acknowledge that they can still change their minds. For Marine Le Pen, the convinced are 87%, the undecided are 13%. Among those who intend to come on April 24 to vote blank or null, 59% are determined while 41% can still change their minds.
Methodology. This barometer is produced for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France until the second round of the presidential election and is based on the methodology of the “rolling poll”, or rolling survey. Every day, about 500 people registered on the electoral lists are questioned. The results published on a daily basis systematically report the last three samples questioned, to obtain a reconstituted sample of approximately 1,500 people.
This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France published on April 14 is based on a total sample of 1,692 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over. The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days. The sample was questioned by Internet and was constituted according to the method of quotas (sex, age, profession of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region).