franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
Emmanuel Macron is leading the voting intentions in the second round of the presidential election, according to our Ipsos Sopra Steria poll for franceinfo and Le Parisien/Today in France, published Wednesday, April 13. This survey is the first in a barometer which measures for franceinfo the evolution of opinion from day to day before the election deadline of April 24.
Emmanuel Macron, president-candidate, is credited with 55% of the voting intentions in the second round, against 45% for Marine Le Pen, his competitor from the National Rally (RN). The margin of error is 3.2 points.
37% of voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise), who came third in the first round, indicate that the candidate for whom they are most likely to vote in the second round is Emmanuel Macron, against 18% for Marine Le Pen. 45% did not comment on this point.
4% of Eric Zemmour (Reconquête!) voters indicate that the candidate they are most likely to vote for in the second round is Emmanuel Macron, compared to 81% for Marine Le Pen. 15% did not comment on this point.
59% of voters for Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts) indicate that the candidate for whom they are most likely to vote in the second round is Emmanuel Macron, against 7% for Marine Le Pen. 34% did not comment on this point.
47% of voters for Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) indicate that the candidate for whom they are most likely to vote in the second round is Emmanuel Macron, against 25% for Marine Le Pen. 28% did not comment on this point.
Ten days before the second ballot, 73% of French people questioned are sure that they will vote (range: between 71 and 75%). A figure slightly lower than the effective participation rate during the second round of the 2017 presidential election (74.6%). Of those who are certain to vote, 86% say they have made their choice and that it will be final, while 14% believe that their vote can still change.
Few of Emmanuel Macron’s voters have doubts: 92% say their choice is final, only 8% recognize that they can still change their minds. For Marine Le Pen, the convinced are 87%, the undecided 13%.
Among those who intend to come on April 24 to vote blank or null, 61% are determined while 39% can still change their minds.
This barometer is produced for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France until the second round of the presidential election and is based on the methodology of “rolling poll”, or rolling survey. Every day, about 500 people registered on the electoral lists are questioned. The results published on a daily basis systematically report the last three samples questioned, to obtain a reconstituted sample of approximately 1,500 people.
This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France published on April 13 is based on a total sample of 1,693 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over. The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days. The sample was questioned by Internet and was constituted according to the method of quotas (sex, age, profession of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region).