Por the moment, the curves are globally sluggish. And everyone has their own idea of why: presidential campaign anesthetized by the health context in January, lack of clarity on the starting cast, that’s for the left, and voters who are increasingly interested in the presidential…
On the other hand, on one point everyone agrees: the entry into the campaign of the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, will result in the loss of a few points in the opinion polls. It is a hope to which the oppositions cling, it is also a risk identified by Macronie.
The statistics are formal: it is common for an outgoing to unscrew a little when entering the campaign. Because once a candidate, explains a close friend of Christiane Taubira, he “is put on the same level as the others”. This is why, according to the same, that Emmanuel Macron is delaying his statement.
Once a candidate, the attacks of the competitors will also redouble in vehemence. At Anne Hidalgo, we expect him to “campaign on the right, so you will have to go and win, says a strategist, the 35% of left-wing voters who are still at home”. The right will try the same thing on the other side of the spectrum, the campaign management of Valérie Pécresse theorized the idea that “if it progresses, it must be to the detriment of Macron”. And we begin to hope, on the side of Valérie Pécresse …
“If he loses three points entering the campaign, there will be bad papers in the press”, anticipates support. And there will perhaps be a window of opportunity to tell another story, on a presidential election not played in advance, on an outgoing person who can be taken out according to the established expression.
Except that the risk is also well identified with Emmanuel Macron… “We can’t exclude the air hole”, says an influential minister. A protocol is almost in place to not amplify this dropout. “You don’t have to make a drama out of it, you have to prepare for it intellectually so as not to panic, so as not to be impressed and tell you ‘oh la la, everything is crumbling’.” This is how this “air hole” hypothesis is relayed, including by Emmanuel Macron’s supporters. To trivialize it, and not be a campaign event when it happens.