franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
Positions are stabilizing between the two best-placed candidates, according to our daily Ipsos-Sopra Steria barometer for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France, updated Friday April 8 for the last time before the first round of the 2022 presidential election. Emmanuel Macron remains stable in the lead with 26.5% (margin of error ± 2.8 points) of voting intentions, ahead of Marine Le Pen, also stable, at 23% (margin of error ± 2.6 points). In third position, Jean-Luc Mélenchon does not move from his third place, with 16.5% of intentions (margin of error ± 2.3 points).
Behind, Eric Zemmour regains half a point at 9% (margin of error ± 1.8 points), still neck and neck with Valérie Pécresse. This is stable at 8.5% (margin of error ± 1.7 points). Yannick Jadot, he lost half a point and now collects 5% of voting intentions (margin of error ± 1.4 points).
Fabien Roussel loses half a point and now collects 3% (margin of error ± 1.1 point). At the same time, Anne Hidalgo and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan gain half a point and remain tied at 2.5% (margin of error ± 1 point), while Jean Lassalle loses half a point and is now at 2 % (margin of error ± 0.9 points).
Philippe Poutou and Nathalie Arthaud bring up the rear, with stable voting intentions. The NPA candidate is at 1% (margin of error ± 0.6 point) while the Lutte Ouvrière candidate is at 0.5% (margin of error ± 0.4 point).
Trends in developments have emerged since the first publication of our barometer on 12 March. First of all, the positions measured in the leading trio have been fixed in this order since the March 18 wave. While Emmanuel Macron’s score has eroded (it was 30.5% on March 12, it has been between 26 and 27% since March 29), Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have progressed. Marine Le Pen went from 15.5% to 23% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon from 12% to 16.5%.
Eric Zemmour, who was in third position at 13.5% on March 12, was let down by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and fell below 10%. Over the period, Valérie Pécresse failed to settle permanently above this symbolic bar. While it was 11% on March 12, it has been below 10% since March 29.
Another symbolic bar, and decisive for the reimbursement of campaign expenses, that of 5%. While he was above on March 12, with 6.5%, Yannick Jadot is now right at 5% of the voting intentions. None of the other candidates managed to approach this 5% mark. Fabien Roussel peaked at 4%, Jean Lassalle and Anne Hidalgo at 3%, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan at 2.5%, Philippe Poutou at 1.5% and Florence Arthaud at 1%. .
Two days before the first round, 72% of French people questioned are sure that they will vote on April 10 (range: between 70 and 74%). This participation index was only 65% in mid-March. Similarly, with the approach of the ballot, the certainty of the choice was strengthened. Of those who are certain to vote, 74% now say they have made their choice and that it will be final, while 26% believe that their vote can still change.
The voters of Emmanuel Macron are, with those of Marine Le Pen, those who are the most sure of their choice, respectively at 88% and 85%. Those who affirm that their intention to vote is final are 80% for Eric Zemmour and 77% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The voters of Valérie Pécresse are only 66% to be certain of their vote, and at Yannick Jadot those who believe that they can still change their minds are still in the majority: 56%.
This barometer is produced for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France until the first round of the presidential election and is based on the methodology of “rolling poll”, or rolling survey. Every day, from Sunday to Friday, about 500 people registered on the electoral lists are questioned. The results published on a daily basis systematically report the last three samples questioned, to obtain a reconstituted sample of approximately 1,500 people.
This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France published on April 8 is based on a total sample of 1,709 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over. The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days. The sample was questioned by Internet and was constituted according to the method of quotas (sex, age, profession of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region).