Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have qualified for the second round of the presidential election. On the key issues of the moment, in particular Ukraine, Russia and NATO, the two candidates apparently have similarities but in reality have deep disagreements.
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First on the relationship with Russia, at first sight, Emmanuel Macron like Marine Le Pen both cultivate a form of balance point: condemnation of the Russian invasion but desire to maintain contact with Moscow. The current president, during his past five-year term, has often spared his Russian counterpart, received him at Fort Brégançon, and traveled to Moscow to try to dissuade the head of the Kremlin from going to war. But Marine Le Pen’s ties with Russian power are much older and much deeper.
In 2017, Vladimir Putin had also supported the far-right candidate in the between rounds. The National Front, which became the National Rally, has long been financed by two loans from Russian banks. In 2022, Marine Le Pen’s party borrowed 10 million euros from a bank in Hungary, Moscow’s closest European partner. In addition, the RN remains opposed to the international sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. In her presidential program, Marine Le Pen advocates an “alliance with Russia” in a new “European security architecture”.
On the relationship with NATO, at first sight, there again, there are points in common. The two candidates express strong criticism against the Atlantic Alliance. We remember Emmanuel Macron speaking “brain dead” to qualify NATO. But Marine Le Pen goes much further by qualifying the organization “warmongering alliance”, responsible, by its enlargement to the East, for Vladimir Putin’s concerns. She wants to take France out of NATO’s integrated military command as soon as the war in Ukraine ends.
The two candidates are above all in deep disagreement on the political orientation to be taken in matters of defence. For Emmanuel Macron, the answer is Europe, the development of European defence, in coordination with the Atlantic Alliance, but with the objective of strategic autonomy for the European Union. With a European projection force and joint military industry projects. For Marine Le Pen, the answer is France and only France. A national defense, equidistant from Moscow and Washington, and with a categorical refusal of European integration on these subjects. This major disagreement refers to the radically opposed positions of the two candidates on the relationship with Europe.
It is on aid to Ukraine that there is the most common ground, at this stage in any case. The candidates are both in favor of welcoming Ukrainian refugees and both are unfavorable, for the moment in any case, to the delivery of offensive weapons to Ukraine. On economic sanctions, we also feel reluctance in both cases to go further. Marine Le Pen in particular is opposed to an energy embargo against Moscow, because of its probable chain effects on the purchasing power of the French. Emmanuel Macron is more inclined to increase the sanctions, but gradually. In summary, that said, the two candidates still have deep differences on foreign policy, in particular the Russia-NATO-Europe file.