You could say it was just a local election that was decided on local issues. But the SPD had reigned over a German capital historically rooted on the left for 20 years. Today, the Social Democrats are ahead of the Conservatives by 10 points (28.2%).
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which has held the mayoralty of Berlin for more than 20 years, is clearly ahead of the conservatives after local elections, according to estimates by television networks #AFP pic.twitter.com/3ru2AV1WlA
– Agence France-Presse (@afpfr) February 12, 2023
Not only did they lose, but they also recorded their worst result since the end of the Second World War, neck and neck with environmentalists. They are at around 18% (the results are not yet final) and hope not to be relegated to third position. Disappointment not easy to digest. The outgoing mayor, Franziska Giffey, who will have difficulty staying in place, speaks of a “bitter evening“and one”hard situation“for his party.
The SPD might have to settle for a place as a “junior” partner in the future coalition – even if all scenarios are still possible. Negotiations will be difficult, no major party claiming to be ready to govern with the training of former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Low turnout
The election of the regional parliament of the Land of Berlin did not motivate the crowds at all: less than 64% participation. No doubt because Berliners have already voted for this election, on September 26, 2021, the same day as the national elections which brought Olaf Scholz to the chancellery. Except that it had been catastrophic: endless queues, missing ballots… We had even announced results while residents were still voting. The election was ultimately canceled and rescheduled for February 12, 2023.
In the meantime, the Social Democrats have paid for the dissatisfaction of the inhabitants on the problems of housing and traffic, schools and public transport, or even the delay taken by the works of the new Willy-Brandt airport, all “far from the clichés about German efficiency, and which make it the laughing stock of the rest of the country” says Deutsche Welle. They were also criticized for the chaos on New Year’s Eve in Berlin, when firefighters and police were bombarded with fireworks in working-class neighborhoods. The opposition accused them of laxity.
The weakened German Chancellor
This bad result is a warning signal which does not call into question the tricolor coalition in power, but which weakens Olaf Scholz. First, it confirms the overall erosion of the SPD. Then, a change of majority in the Land of Berlin will have an impact in the Bündesrat, the upper house of the federal parliament which represents the 16 Landers. Scholz will lose precious seats there to pass the reforms in progress: the votes are likely to become more complicated.
Berlin: Conservatives win vote but unclear who will rule
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD suffer setback
More voters pick center-right CDU than any other party, but its candidate may not get to be mayorhttps://t.co/jnCTdXW1Cv
— Clean Energy Wire (@cleanenergywire) February 13, 2023
Finally, because the other parties in his coalition (the FDP and the Greens) are also retreating. All in a context of high inflation, debates around arms deliveries to Ukraine. The government is already being criticized for its procrastination and lack of leadership.
Three regional elections will be held in the coming months (in the city-state of Bremen in May, in Bavaria and Hesse in October). No doubt Olaf Scholz will be watching them closely.