Electoral setback for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party

You could say it was just a local election that was decided on local issues. But the SPD had reigned over a German capital historically rooted on the left for 20 years. Today, the Social Democrats are ahead of the Conservatives by 10 points (28.2%).

Not only did they lose, but they also recorded their worst result since the end of the Second World War, neck and neck with environmentalists. They are at around 18% (the results are not yet final.) and hope not to be relegated to third position. Disappointment not easy to digest. The outgoing mayor, Franziska Giffey, who will have difficulty staying in place, speaks of a “bitter evening“and one”hard situation“for his party.

The SPD might have to settle for a place as a “junior” partner in the future coalition – even if all scenarios are still possible. Negotiations will be difficult, no major party claiming to be ready to govern with the Conservatives.

Low turnout

The election of the regional parliament of the Land of Berlin did not motivate the crowds at all: less than 64% participation. No doubt because Berliners have already voted for this election, on September 26, 2021, the same day as the national elections which brought Olaf Scholz to the chancellery. Except that it had been catastrophic: endless queues, missing ballots… We had even announced results while residents were still voting. The election was ultimately canceled and rescheduled for February 12, 2023.

In the meantime, the Social Democrats have paid for the dissatisfaction of the inhabitants on the problems of housing and traffic. They were criticized for the chaos on New Year’s Eve in Berlin, when firefighters and police were bombarded with fireworks in working-class neighborhoods. The opposition accused them of laxity.

The weakened German Chancellor

This bad result is a warning signal which does not call into question the tricolor coalition in power, but which weakens Olaf Scholz. First, it confirms the overall erosion of the SPD. Then, a change of majority in the Land of Berlin will have an impact in the Bündesrat, the chamber of the federal parliament which represents the 16 Landers.

Finally, because the other parties in his coalition (the FDP and the Greens) are also retreating. All in a context of high inflation, debates around arms deliveries to Ukraine. The government is already being criticized for its procrastination and lack of leadership.

Three regional elections will be held in the coming months (in the city-state of Bremen in May, in Bavaria and Hesse in October). No doubt Olaf Scholz will be watching them closely.


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