If elections were held today, the Parti Québécois would form a majority government and the CAQ would be relegated to 4e rank with 11 deputies in the National Assembly.
This is the latest electoral projection from Qc125, a poll aggregator. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s troops would thus take power with 69 constituencies, ahead of the Liberal Party, which would form the official opposition with 26 seats. Québec solidaire would follow with 14 representatives in Parliament, while the Conservative Party of Éric Duhaime would elect five deputies.
While their voting intentions are in free fall, as revealed by the most recent Léger-The newspaper published last week, François Legault’s Caquists would go from 90 to 11 elected officials. Qc125 projections show that the CAQ would be ahead in eleven counties, and still “competitive” in only 29 ridings.
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Philippe J. Fournier, creator of the site, emphasizes that there is a lot of “uncertainty” surrounding support for the CAQ due to several close battles with the PQ.
Since François Legault is no longer popular with Quebecers and his government dissatisfies more and more people, “there is no longer really a solid foundation for the CAQ,” he analyzes. Not to mention downward regional trends, such as in the 450, where voters often vote as a bloc.
Thus, important ministers like Pierre Fitzgibbon, Benoît Charette and Simon Jolin-Barrette would bite the dust in front of their PQ opponent. There are, however, a few exceptions, such as the Minister of Health, Christian Dubé, who would retain his seat in La Prairie. “There are small bonuses in the computer model for important ministers who have a good rating,” insists Philippe J. Fournier.
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Guilbault in danger
But Deputy Prime Minister Geneviève Guilbault would be in danger in her riding of Louis-Hébert, in Quebec, if a vote were held today. The latest Léger poll revealed the collapse of the CAQ vote in the National Capital, which has not been fertile ground for sovereignists in recent years. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon now attracts 43% of citizens, compared to only 20% for François Legault.
“There is no minister who can resist such a wave, unless there are really hyper-local effects that the polls miss,” points out the creator of Qc125. If we model that the CAQ lost twenty points in Quebec and that the PQ gained perhaps 25, it is certain that the CAQ seats are all in danger.”
Member of Parliament for Lévis and former PQ member, Minister Bernard Drainville could also be dethroned by his former political party. According to the projection, the two Beauce counties would pass into the hands of the conservatives.
The simulation shows that François Legault would retain his seat of L’Assomption, but not with a majority as large as that observed in previous elections.
The PLQ would form the official opposition
Even without a leader, the Liberals would face the government benches in the National Assembly in the event of an election tomorrow morning. “If I keep the PLQ relatively at the same level as during [la dernière] election, but the CAQ loses fifteen to twenty points by default, the PLQ takes back some constituencies which were traditionally acquired by it,” he illustrates.
Québec solidaire has several “solid headquarters” in Montreal. With a slight increase in voting intentions, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois’ troops could dream of a few additional deputies. But the solidarity groups are not yet in the “paying zone”, which stands at 23-24% support from Quebecers.
“They will of course blame the voting method, but the voting method is such that finishing second [dans un comté]it doesn’t make any money, so QS would make modest gains,” analyzes Mr. Fournier.
Electoral projection of seats in the National Assembly of Qc125
Parti Québécois: 69
Liberal Party of Quebec: 26
Solidarity Quebec: 14
Coalition Avenir Québec: 11
Conservative Party of Quebec: 5
Here are the eleven ridings where Qc125 projects the CAQ ahead
Papineau (Mathieu Lacombe)
Arthabaska (Éric Lefebvre)
Chapleau (Mathieu Lévesque)
Champlain (Sonia LeBel)
Johnson (André Lamontagne)
Trois-Rivières (Jean Boulet)
Granby (François Bonnardel)
The Assumption (François Legault)
The Prairie (Christian Dubé)
Nicolet–Bécancour (Donald Martel)
Gatineau (Robert Bussière)