A few days after Monday’s vote, as the dust settles, we are able to better measure the impact of the results.
Posted yesterday at 2:00 p.m.
First, François Legault won an even more decisive victory than in 2018. The electoral success of the Coalition avenir Québec is major. The legitimacy of his government is also strengthened. For their part, the opposition parties will not escape the questions that the electoral defeat implies.
However, this is not an election like any other. Since it clearly confirms an electoral realignment1this now imposes serious challenges on them.
In 2018, several observers or columnists had explained the election of the CAQ by the wear and tear of the Liberal Party of Quebec. In short, according to them, the Coalition avenir Québec had had the merit of uniting the anti-liberal vote and did not benefit from a membership vote. In short, a restoration of the partisan system would certainly occur in the next election. In 2022, some of these same observers have developed a new narrative to explain François Legault’s victory. It would be caused by the distortions associated with an appalling voting system. However, it is the same as at the federal level, the same as in 2018 and the same which has already ensured victory for both the PQ and the PLQ. However, the CAQ collected, both in number of absolute votes and in percentage, a better result than that of four years ago. The numbers have the merit of being stubborn.
New behaviors, new debates
With 41% of the vote compared to 37.5% in 2018, the CAQ garnered 176,000 more voters. During this time, Québec solidaire lost nearly 15,000 voters and came second with 15.4% of the vote. The Liberals lost more than 400,000 votes and found themselves at 14.4% and the PQ nearly 90,000 at 14.6%. In the wake of the pandemic, the Conservatives can boast of having recorded a gain of 470,000 voters, but nevertheless close the march at 12.9%.
So, what meaning to give to the victory of the CAQ? In political science, it confirms the realignment of the partisan system2. The PQ and PLQ, once dominant parties, continued to decline. Relegated to third and fourth place in the popular vote, they both obtained the worst results in their history. Circumscriptions considered as fortified castles have fallen. Think of Jonquière in Saguenay, the two ridings on the North Shore, Verdun or Anjou–Louis-Riel on the island of Montreal.
An analysis of the results by region also helps to understand the extent of this change. Only the CAQ was competitive in all the administrative regions of Quebec. The PLQ only won an average of 6% in the Quebec region and barely 8% outside the metropolitan regions of Montreal and Quebec3. An even finer regional analysis illustrates the crushing of the Liberal vote.
In Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, where Philippe Couillard was elected in 2018, the Liberals on average obtained results below 4%. On the North Shore, it’s even worse at 3%.
We are now in the presence of partisan subsystems where the most competitive opponents vary by region. In Chaudière-Appalaches, Centre-du-Québec and Mauritius, it was a duel between the CAQ and the Conservatives. In Quebec, that included QS. In eastern Quebec, on the North Shore and in Saguenay–Lac Saint-Jean, the CAQ was more in competition with the PQ, while the fight was taking place with the PLQ and QS in the Montreal region. We are witnessing a split in the vote of the opposition parties. They can even be considered to have more niche electorates. This is also the case of the PLQ with the Anglophone vote.
The dynamics of the Quebec partisan system have changed. The results of the 2022 election confirmed this. The bipartisanship associated with the independence yes-no divide that dominated the political landscape for more than 50 years is no longer central. It has given way to a new political environment where the issues are much more fragmented. We are now entitled to debates on the place of the State, on private health care and taxation. Debates on the different models of living together and the integration of immigrants marked this campaign. We are also witnessing the emergence of a more prominent place for issues associated with climate change.
No voting system is perfect and the debate will certainly continue. However, this should not be used as a justification for maintaining a rhetoric carried by actors who would be tempted to deny any realignment. In addition to trivializing the importance of the changes taking place before our eyes, this would have the effect of undermining Quebec democracy. On the contrary, we have an electoral system that is the envy of many.
Historically, we have to go back to the time of Robert Bourassa to see a Prime Minister win two consecutive majority mandates. François Legault’s two victories did not happen by accident. Rather, they illustrate a major change in the electoral behavior of Quebec voters.4 and in the salience of the issues that explain their vote.
* Eric Montigny is a researcher at the Research Chair on Democracy and Parliamentary Institutions and at the Political Communication Research Group.