Five days before the vote, François Legault confided his astonishment at still being largely in the lead against four opponents. “I thought it would tighten more than that in the polls,” said the leader of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) during a radio interview on Wednesday.
In fact, Mr. Legault can thank his many opponents for fragmenting the vote. Apart from a slight rise in the Parti Québécois, no one has benefited from the CAQ’s small five-point slide in the polls since the end of August.
A stroke of luck, considering the controversies caused by Mr. Legault. From the first day of the campaign, he stumbles. In reaction to criticism from Dominique Anglade, he responds by speaking of “the lady”. This first blunder overshadows its launch.
During the second week, François Legault makes a link between immigration and violence. Quickly, the chief caquiste expresses his regrets for his remarks. Two other days overshadowed by the theme of immigration.
Then Mr. Legault gives it back by talking about the social cohesion that depends on the integration of immigrants. Other waves of criticism.
Follows the cascade of declarations on the third link between Quebec and Lévis. Mr. Legault sows confusion. The CAQ leader refuses to make public studies that are not up to date, according to him. He then declares that there is no study on his tunnel of 6.5 billion, then, finally, that the studies do not matter, because he will make the “political decision” to build it.
Mr. Legault’s first debate is not convincing. His second is hardly more. He must then apologize to the husband of Joyce Echaquan for having said that the problems of racism were “now settled” at the Joliette hospital.
The CAQ leader then begins the last stage of his campaign. On Wednesday, he said raising immigration thresholds would be “suicidal”. The same day, his minister Jean Boulet was overtaken by controversial remarks on immigration. The CAQ is once again the object of all attacks.
François Legault repeats that he is ready to seek a third term in 2026. His leadership will certainly depend on the result obtained on Monday. Even if his re-election is almost assured. The seeds sown during the campaign could give him a bitter harvest sooner rather than later.