Elections in Türkiye: strong mobilization, a perilous ballot for Erdogan

Polling stations in Turkey closed their doors late Sunday afternoon after seeing a huge crowd of voters marching past, who had come to choose between outgoing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power for 20 years, and his social-political rival. Democrat, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Until the last minute – 5:00 p.m. local time – the ballot boxes continued to be filled with large mustard green envelopes deposited since 8:00 a.m. by voters who sometimes waited for several hours in front of the schools transformed into polling stations.

At stake: the choice of the thirteenth president of the Turkish Republic, who is celebrating his first century, and the future of the head of state who hopes to stay in power against his adversary.

The winner must obtain a majority of 50% of the votes plus one, under penalty of a second round on May 28 – the symbolic anniversary date of the greatest popular protest movement which shook power in 2003.

The 64 million voters also had to choose the 600 deputies who will sit in the unicameral parliament in Ankara.

In 2018, during the last presidential election, the head of state won in the first round with more than 52.5% of the vote. A waiver would already be a setback for him.

No prediction

Mr. Erdogan has promised to respect the verdict of the ballot box, watched by hundreds of thousands of tellers from both sides and from which he has always drawn his legitimacy.

The electoral commission (YSK), kept under close surveillance by the police who block all traffic of cars and pedestrians, has not reported any incident at this stage.

Arrived at midday in his polling station in Üsküdar, a conservative district on the Asian side of Istanbul, Mr. Erdogan wished “a future profitable to the country and to Turkish democracy”, underlining “the enthusiasm of the voters especially in the areas affected by the February 6 earthquake which killed at least 50,000 people.

Appeared the tired features, he did not make the slightest prediction on the results, expected in the evening, and which he will wait for from Ankara, just like Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.

Shortly before, the latter had been the first of the two to cast his ballot in Ankara: “We missed democracy,” said the social democrat, all smiles. “You will see, spring will return to this country, God willing, and it will last forever,” he added, using one of his campaign slogans.

“Do not divide Turkey”

Voters were polarized between Islamo-conservative President Erdogan, 69, and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, 74, head of the CHP, the secular party of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of modern Turkey.

“What matters is not to divide Turkey,” commented Recep Turktan, 67, while waiting outside his office in Üsküdar.

A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, is credited with a few points.

“The economy is not the priority, we have to start with the basics: restore human rights and democracy, regain our dignity,” judge Hande Tekay, 55, in the upscale district of Sisli, in Istanbul.

“To put it simply, we want the French revolution: ‘Equality, freedom, fraternity’, because in the past twenty years, all that has disappeared”, adds Ulvi Aminci, 58, blue jeans and tattoo on his hand.

“I say ‘continue’ with Erdogan”, implores Nurcan Soyer, on the contrary, with a scarf on his head, in front of Erdogan’s polling station.

In the bruised city of Antakya, the former Antioch (south) ruined by the earthquake, Mehmet Topaloglu arrived among the first: “We need change, that’s enough”.

The wounds remain acute three months after the tragedy: “Even before the earthquake my vote was defined, but with the earthquake it was confirmed”, loose Aylin Karakas, 23 years old.

Mr Kiliçdaroglu is leading a united front of six parties from the nationalist right to the liberal centre-left. He also received the support of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, the third political force in the country.

Mr. Erdogan appears this time before a country worn down by an economic crisis, with a currency devalued by half in two years and inflation that exceeded 85% in the fall.

Facing him, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu played the appeasement card, promising the restoration of the rule of law and respect for institutions, battered over the past ten years by Mr. Erdogan’s autocratic drift.

For political scientist Ahmet Insel, in exile in Paris, “Erdogan’s defeat would show that we can get out of a well-established autocracy through the ballot box. »

A form of “Turkish spring” which will be closely scrutinized abroad. Because Turkey, a member of NATO, enjoys a unique position between Europe and the Middle East, and is a major diplomatic player.

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