(Ankara) The Turkish opposition is subjected Sunday evening to an emotional yo-yo in the face of the partial electoral results which give it a delay on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and that it applies to contest step by step.
In the morning, the calm smile of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu reflected the hope nourished by the polls before the election: the opposition candidate, at the head of a coalition of six parties, could emerge as the master of the country from twenty years, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
However, these estimates did not guarantee victory in the first round.
In the middle of the evening, the two candidates called on the scrutineers of their respective camps “to stay put” until the end of the count.
The opposition camp, long fragmented and this time united, believed in it despite everything, even more so when it saw the queues stretching all day long in front of the polling stations.
But the first results fell and the enthusiasm displayed by part of the 85 million inhabitants of a Turkey more polarized than ever fell: the outgoing head of state appeared in the lead with more than half of the ballots counted.
The opposition immediately unsheathed: “We are used to these methods, keep your spirits up! “, thus harangued the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, from Ankara and the headquarters of the CHP, the secular party of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of modern Turkey.
PHOTO ALI UNAL, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, leader of the CHP, the party of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of modern Turkey, leads a united front of six parties from the nationalist right to the liberal center left.
On Twitter, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the boss of the CHP, also launched a silent charge: “We are in the lead”.
“But the figures don’t show it because the results of the polls where we come out on top are systematically contested by the AKP,” said Mr. Imamoglu.
Beating heart
In this atmosphere suddenly made heavy by uncertainty, some observers recall that Mr. Erdogan had, while voting at midday, announced that he would follow the results in the evening from Istanbul, before changing his mind and returning to Ankara, the capital city.
Thus, the mayor of the Cankaya district in Ankara, Alper Tasdelen, a traditional stronghold of the CHP, affirms that the AKP contests there “all the results as the counting progresses”.
The party in power, on the other hand, defends itself: “Despite errors, the system works. Accusing institutions in panic mode makes no sense,” said one of its representatives, Ali Ihan Yavuz.
The battle promises to be just as tight for the legislative elections which were also convened on Sunday to appoint the 600 members of parliament.
In the economic capital Istanbul, in front of the headquarters of the CHP, the expectation is also heavy. Evrim Narin, head of the CHP stamps his feet, his heart pounding and the emotions as fluctuating as the results.
“We are waiting with enthusiasm. We are a little stressed, a little tense,” she confesses.
“I’m still convinced that we’re going to win! “, she told AFP.
On the same bank of the mythical Golden Horn, another decor and another atmosphere. Eyes riveted on a giant screen, dozens of “Reis” supporters watch the results given by official media: Recep Tayyip Erdogan exceeds 50%.
Elections in Türkiye, a user’s guide
PHOTO EMRAH GUREL, ASSOCIATED PRESS
First-time voters and observers
Some 64 million voters (out of 85 million inhabitants) are registered.
Among them, 5.2 million young first-time voters who have known only Mr. Erdogan and his autocratic drift since the big protests of 2013 and the failed coup of 2016.
Hundreds of observers were deployed in the 50,000 open polling stations, including in the southern areas of the country devastated by the February 6 earthquake.
The Council of Europe, for example, sent 350 observers, in addition to those appointed by the parties, including the 300,000 mobilized by the opposition.
In 2018, the participation rate had exceeded 86%.
Duel between two camps
Four names appear on the presidential ballots: that of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 69, twenty of whom are at the top of the state, and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP, Islamo-conservative).
Facing him Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP, social democrat and secular founded by Mustafa Kemal on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire). The 74-year-old former civil servant leads a coalition of six parties ranging from the nationalist right to the liberal center left.
Sinan Ogan, a former far-right deputy, is also in the running, credited with less than 5% of voting intentions in the latest opinion polls.
A fourth candidate, Muharrem Ince, withdrew on Thursday, but too late to see his name removed from the ballots.
If no candidate obtains a majority, a second round will take place on May 28.
The challenge of the legislative
They make it possible in a proportional ballot to appoint the 600 members of the Grand National Assembly, a unicameral parliament whose role has been eclipsed since the constitutional reform of 2017 and by the strong presidential regime that resulted from it.
The bloc formed by Mr. Erdogan’s AKP and its allies in the nationalist MHP movement currently holds the majority.
The opposition aims to delight him and even to obtain the two-thirds majority required to modify the Constitution.
Cohabitation is possible but would make governance difficult.
President until 2028?
The president can theoretically only serve for two terms of five years.
Mr. Erdogan can claim to endorse for the third time the supreme office because the mandate carried out after his victory in the presidential election of 2014 under the old system, after 12 years spent as prime minister, was not taken into account.
Mr. Erdogan could therefore in theory remain at the head of the country until 2028.
Mr. Kiliçdaroglu for his part suggested that there would be only one mandate remaining if he is elected on Sunday.