The first round of the Turkish elections is this Sunday, May 14 with the presidential election which takes place at the same time as the legislative ones. Analysis and decryption with Ahmet Insel, Turkish journalist and academic.
Today in European microphone, focus on the Turkish presidential elections of May 14. The Turks are called upon to vote for the presidential and legislative elections, to renew Parliament. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president, is facing a main opponent, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. Long-awaited elections around the world. 64 million Turks are called to the polls. To decode the event, an academic, a committed Turkish journalist, Ahmet Insel.
franceinfo: Ahmet Insel, is it the big day?
Ahmet Insel: It’s the big day yes, because that’s really the question we’re asking ourselves, it’s a kind of plebiscite or referendum. It is an election first for, and against Erdogan, above all at the presidential level, it is a great moment because he has been in power for 20 years, since 2003.
There are 6 million new voters, dare first-time voters, the youth, the Turks abroad are 3 million, there is also the vote of the Kurds, and then the Turks are faced with galloping inflation, we are talking about 64% but some say it is much more. It must be said that this is an election that everyone is waiting for in Europe?
That’s it, even beyond Europe, I have the impression that in the region too…
In Central Asia?
In Central Asia, among the neighbours, the close neighbors of Turkey. So, it’s an election that seems to be very close, and for the first time, Erdogan is running for election, not as the head of the campaign, but rather in a defensive position. The polls show us that the opposition candidate is a few points ahead, but interestingly from what you reported, the Turkish Lira has lost over 200% of its value. The first-time voters you mentioned, 6 million, are largely unemployed, since youth unemployment is 25%.
It must be said that Erdogan left his mark on Turkish political life. As much as he is close to Moscow, the Turkish army is the second army of NATO, he concludes a major agreement with the European Union for refugees in 2016, and then Erdogan, he wants to be the essential mediator in the crisis Ukrainian?
Yes, everything about Erdogan’s foreign policy weighs little on the internal electoral campaign. Obviously, part of his electorate, which remains faithful and very proud of this international positioning of Erdogan, and then the arms industry, which is not negligible in terms of power and capacity.
On the other hand, there is also a religious base which remains very faithful to him no matter what. And then finally, a third base is a nationalist, security base. And you mentioned earlier the Kurdish vote. He uses the Kurdish danger a lot today, like what the opposition will be dependent on the Kurds, the PKK, etc. He is the man who today is really tired and defensive, but he is still a great powerful politician. .
Who is the main opponent?
Kemal Kiliçdaroglu is 74 years old, from a very modest family, he studied classical studies from the Republican school to university. He is a great servant of the State, a great senior civil servant, director general of Social Security, and after his retirement, he embarked on politics, and he became a deputy for the first time in 2002 from the Republican Party. of the people, and he became president of this party in 2010. He is diametrically opposed to Erdogan.
The question that arises with Kemal Kiliçdaroglu is the Greek question, the Cyprus question?
Unfortunately, the question of Cyprus does not arise because it is really traditional state policy. It won’t change.
And against Greece?
Faced with Greece, what will change is that probably and surely there will be a resumption of dialogue with Greece. But above all at the level of foreign policy, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu undertook to find the links which are somewhat broken with NATO, for example the dismantling of the S-400 rockets, to authorize the adhesion of Sweden and probably also a resumption dialogue with the European Union. With Moscow, he pledged yesterday to respect, as a member of NATO, the sanctions voted by NATO vis-à-vis Russia.
Results tomorrow night?
Tomorrow midnight, we will probably have the results of the presidential elections and the legislative ones will probably arrive on Monday morning.
Y will there be a second round or not?
At the moment, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu seems to be three or four points ahead of Tayyip Erdogan. First, it’s within the margins of error. On the other hand, most opinion polls, for the moment obviously, give him the winner in the second round. But between May 14 and 28, between the first and second round, we don’t know at all what can happen in Turkey.