Elections in the Philippines | The son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos leads the polls

(Manila) Filipinos began voting on Monday to appoint their next president, a high-stakes ballot for which Ferdinand Marcos Junior, son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, is promised by the polls a landslide victory.

About 67 million Filipinos are called to vote until 7 p.m. (11 a.m. GMT) for these general elections, during which the vice-president as well as the deputies, half of the senators, the 81 provincial governors and d other local elected officials. Analysts predict a strong turnout.

Ten candidates are in the running to succeed President Rodrigo Duterte, and Ferdinand Marcos Jr, well ahead in the polls, seems on track to complete the return to power of the fallen dynasty nearly 40 years after his exile.

At a school in Batac, the stronghold of the Marcos family, voters lined up Monday morning, portable fan in hand to beat the tropical heat. After the passage of sniffer dogs, they saw Mr. Marcos Jr arrive, who had come with his sister Irene to vote; followed by their mother, Imelda, widow of the dictator and 92-year-old matriarch of the Marcos clan.

After six years of Duterte’s authoritarian rule, human rights activists, Catholic Church leaders and political analysts fear that Marcos Jr will be emboldened by a landslide victory and lead the country with an even heavier grip.

“We believe this will aggravate the human rights crisis in the country,” said Cristina Palabay, secretary general of the Karapatan human rights alliance.

A vast campaign of disinformation to rehabilitate the dictatorial regime, the clientelist system and the disenchantment of voters with recent governments have fueled the return to favor of the Marcos.

Polls predict a victory for the 64-year-old candidate, nicknamed “BongBong”, with well over half of the vote. To win this ballot in a single round, it would be enough for him to be the one who obtains the most votes.

Supporters of her main rival, current vice-president Leni Robredo, are hoping for a last-minute surprise. Some analysts believe that his score could benefit from a possible disaffection from the polls on the part of supporters of Marcos Jr, too confident in the victory of their candidate.

Corruption and family dynasties

Since M.^me Robredo announced his candidacy for the supreme office in October, groups of volunteers have multiplied in the vast archipelago to convince voters.

The 57-year-old lawyer and economist narrowly defeated Marcos Jr in the 2016 vice-presidential race (in the Philippines, the president and vice-president are elected separately). She promised to rid Philippine democracy of corruption, in an archipelago where a handful of families control the country.

Marcos Jr and his ally presidential candidate Sara Duterte, daughter of the incumbent president, say they are best qualified to “unify” the country.

Hundreds of thousands of supporters dressed in red attended Marcos Jr and Duterte’s latest rally in Manila on Saturday.

” We tried [d’autres dirigeants] and they were even worse than during the Marcos era,” said Josephine Llorca, who believes that successive governments after the 1986 revolution that ousted the family have failed to improve the lives of the poor.

“We have never seen any development. If the other administrations had succeeded, I don’t think we would have a BBM,” she added, referring to the initials of “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.

Risk to democracy

If the poll predictions are confirmed, Marcos Jr would become the first presidential candidate to be elected with an absolute majority since the overthrow of his father.

According to political analyst Richard Heydarian, such a victory could allow him to revise the Constitution to consolidate his power and weaken democracy.

“Duterte never had the discipline and the wherewithal to follow through on his authoritarian agenda,” Heydarian said. “This historic opportunity could fall to the Marcos.”

Other candidates for president include boxing legend Manny Pacquiao and former garbage collector turned actor Francisco Domagoso. But only Marcos Jr and Robredo are considered to have a chance of winning.

Personality, rather than politics, usually influences the choice of candidate, and vote buying and intimidation are also recurring issues in Philippine elections.

In an enthusiastic speech in front of hundreds of thousands of supporters, Leni Robredo declared on Saturday: “victory awaits us”.

Regardless of the outcome of the ballot, opponents of Marcos Jr have already vowed to continue efforts to have him disqualified due to a previous tax offense conviction, and to make him pay the billions of dollars owed in inheritance tax. .

“It’s another crossroads for us,” said Judy Taguiwalo, 72, an anti-Marcos activist who was arrested twice and tortured during martial law. “We must continue to stand up and fight.”