On January 13, the Taiwanese were invited to the polls, in a context of increased tensions between China and the United States. The Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), in favor of the island’s independence, won a third consecutive term. A first since the democratization of the island at the end of the 1980s. Despite the security context surrounding the island, we note that a quarter of voters voted in a protest manner, to the great benefit of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). , a young party created in 2019.
Without denying international issues, domestic issues, such as the cost of living and jobs, seem to be of greater concern to a certain part of the Taiwanese electorate.
Hot spot between China and the United States
First of all, Taiwan is a central point in Sino-American tensions. Considered a “rebel province” by Beijing, which does not rule out reunification by force, the island lives under constant military threat from its Chinese neighbor. Democratic and liberal, Taiwan is a symbol of resistance to the values and the totalitarian political system advocated by Beijing.
On the other hand, the know-how of Taiwanese companies in the field of semiconductors is unrivaled, a piece at the center of the technological competition between Beijing and Washington. Without it, cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence and the latest military technologies would still be on the drawing board.
The main forces at work
The election campaign ended with three main candidates. First, Lai Ching-te is the candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). This party promotes Taiwanese identity over Chinese one. Even if more than 60% of the population identifies as Taiwanese, faced with the threat of invasion from Beijing, they are not in favor of an official declaration of independence. Project long desired by this party.
Second, there is Hou Yu-ih, the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate. This party is in favor of a rapprochement with Beijing, without wishing for reunification with the continent. According to him, the establishment of cordial relations would be the best way to ensure the sovereignty and autonomy of the island.
Third, Ko Wen-je, the former mayor of Taipei, is the candidate of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), created in 2019. This party mainly appeals to young voters who are dissatisfied with the other two parties. Additionally, supporters of this party are more concerned about domestic issues, such as rents and wages.
Political issues and Chinese interference
The relationship with China has been the central theme of electoral campaigns since the end of the 1980s. The PDP frames this issue under the opposition “democracy versus authoritarianism”. The KMT prefers to speak of “war versus peace”, insinuating that a declaration of independence would lead to war. Despite everything, everyone’s preferred position is the status quo. Faced with the forced reintegration of Hong Kong as well as constant military pressure from Beijing, the Taiwanese wish first and foremost to preserve their de facto state.
However, this election has shown us that many voters believe the focus should be on domestic issues, such as issues related to real estate, jobs, wages and inflation. This position is mainly shared by those aged 20 to 30, who, without minimizing security issues, think that the DPP and the KMT do not care enough about them.
We must also count on the presence of China in this campaign. According to an article from Foreign Affairs, Beijing has reportedly spent tens of millions of dollars since 2016 to use local “proxies” – media, influencers and pro-Beijing political elites – with the aim of accentuating social divisions and eroding voter confidence. However, the island is resisting these tactics through networks of civilian groups and government initiatives that combat Chinese disinformation. In addition, society is informed about the means used by Beijing to influence public opinion.
China also maintained its military pressure around the island during the campaign. Spy balloons as well as air and sea incursions have been reported by the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense.
Election results
It was the DPP candidate, Lai Ching-te, who was elected, with around 40% of the votes. His Kuomintang rival received 33% of the vote. This is a “partial” victory for the PDP. Although his candidate was elected to the post of president, he did not receive a majority of votes. This situation places him in a position of relative weakness for his first term. However, no party won a majority in Parliament.
The result tells us that the Taiwanese seem to prefer the DPP in the current context. The assertion of Taiwanese identity and sovereignty seems to take precedence over the rather conciliatory position of the Kuomintang.
It is important to highlight the breakthrough of the PPT, which received 26% of the votes. This is a very clear message for the new president: he must focus his attention on domestic issues. Furthermore, with its eight seats in Parliament, it finds itself in a position of power to negotiate bills in its favor in exchange for its support.
What does this mean for the island?
Relations between China and Taiwan are unlikely to improve in the coming years. Beijing calls Mr. Lai a “dangerous supporter” of the island’s independence. Moreover, in order to ensure the island’s autonomy and security, Mr. Lai promised to strengthen the relationship with Washington. The “peace under tension” that the island has experienced for several years is likely to continue in the coming years. In other words, it is likely that China will continue its military operations near the island and its disinformation campaigns.
These elections have shown us that China’s tactics are counterproductive. The Taiwanese now define themselves as distinct from the mainland. This distinction is particularly evident in the attachment they have to their democratic system.
The Taiwanese democratic flame is resisting the Chinese storm which is trying to smother it at all costs.