Elections in Kenya | Will “Baba” finally win?

On his fifth attempt, Raila Odinga could become Kenya’s new president on Tuesday. But we fear tensions in the wake of the ballot…

Jean-Christophe Laurence
The Press

Five attempts for Raila Odinga? Here is one who has a lot of ideas.

Indeed, but this time could be the right one for this old hand in Kenyan politics. At 77, Raila Odinga, known as “Baba”, is the winner of the presidential election to be held on Tuesday in the East African country.

An Ipsos poll published on Tuesday gives him 47% of the vote, against 41% for his main rival, the outgoing vice-president, William Ruto. But nothing is decided yet, because an absolute majority is necessary to gain power and the number of undecided people is still close to 10%. Not to mention alliances with defeated candidates, which could force a second round.

Where are the fears?

Absolutely. Kenya has a long history of violence linked to presidential elections. In 2007-2008, clashes between various ethnic groups and partisan factions left more than 1,000 dead. The 2017 election also went wrong.

The institutions have certainly been consolidated (Electoral Commission, Supreme Court), but all it takes is a close result for tensions to reappear. “Anything is possible,” says Cameron Hudson, Africa analyst at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. “My concern is that the candidates reject the results by crying fraud and mobilize their supporters to protest. As a result, the environment could become explosive and difficult to control. »

Can we imagine appeals to ethnic divisions, as in the past?

A little less this time. Because none of the current candidates comes from the Kikuyu tribe, which has dominated Kenyan politics since independence, and which has always been at the center of ethnic violence. In addition, William Ruto and Raila Odinga have both had the idea of ​​adding a running mate of Kikuyu origin, which risks mitigating the risks.

Nevertheless, concern reigns…

The flammable potential remains very real. And the international community, led by the United States, fears the conflagration because of the geostrategic importance of Kenya. The country is an African economic powerhouse and a stabilizing factor in a highly volatile region. Neighboring Ethiopia, which previously played this role, is now embroiled in civil war. Same for South Sudan. Somalia has been disturbed for several years by the jihadist threat. “If Kenya were to face turbulence because of these elections, the effects would extend far beyond the country,” said Cameron Hudson. These are reasons why we must pay attention to what will happen next week. »

And on the ground, what do the two favorites promise?

The big issue in this election is the economy. Kenya has been hit hard by the COVID-19 downturn and the war in Ukraine. The country imports 80% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia and the majority of its fertilizers from Russia. A real problem for this predominantly agrarian society. The two candidates promise economic recovery and the eradication of the external debt, with however different visions. Ruto by playing the small business card, Odinga by promising free trade agreements and the establishment of multinationals to create jobs. Both also accuse each other of corruption, to the point that Odinga refused to cross swords with his rival 10 days ago during the electoral debate.

Accusations founded?

“There is a lot of truth in both cases. It’s Kenya, ”replies Cameron Hudson, highlighting the extreme wealth of both. The expert points out that Kenyan youth are strongly disillusioned with these two career politicians from the establishment, even if Ruto tries to play the card of the man of the people and spokesperson for the working classes. ” [Les jeunes] see the same politicians, elite politicians who have become rich through their connections. They are extremely unmotivated. This electorate could play a crucial role in Tuesday’s poll. Both candidates promised they would accept the verdict, but Odinga’s track record says just the opposite: he had contested the results in his four previous appearances…

With information from RFI. the BBC. France 24 and The Africa Report