(Rio de Janeiro) To hope to win in a high-tension second round in Brazil against far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, Lula must seduce the centrist electorate, while strengthening his “emotional bond” with the working classes, according to analysts.
Posted at 12:41 p.m.
The left-wing ex-president (2003-2010) beat his rival in the first round (48% against 43%), but the gap turned out to be much smaller than predicted by the polls.
For Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, the countdown has begun: this Tuesday, he only has 26 days left to convince voters to give him a third term.
“We need to talk less among ourselves and speak more to voters […]including those who seem to dislike us,” the former steelworker said Monday night after meeting with his campaign team in Sao Paulo.
“‘Lulinha paz e amor’ (little Lula peace and love) is ready to talk to everyone,” he added, referring to his nickname when he was first elected to the presidency in 2002, when he tried to seduce the centrist electorate.
For this year’s election, the candidate of the Workers’ Party (PT) had already wanted to bring people together by nominating former governor of Sao Paulo Geraldo Alckmin, an emblematic personality of the center right whom he had beaten, as vice-presidential candidate. in the second round in 2006.
But he will have to go further to cast as wide a net as possible in view of the decisive vote on October 30.
Operation seduction
“The number one priority for Lula is not to lose the votes” of those who voted for him in the first round, ie 57.2 million voters, explains Leandro Gabiati, of the Dominium consulting firm.
“Some voters who are not necessarily on the left voted for Lula thinking he was the anti-Bolsonaro candidate”, but “if Bolsonaro moderates his speech, he can possibly change their minds”.
Another priority: to attract as many voters as possible from the two main candidates eliminated in the first round, Simone Tebet (center right, 4%) and Ciro Gomes (center left, 3%).
Another coveted segment: abstainers, about 21% of the electorate in the first round.
“He will have to make concessions”, because Bolsonaro will also try to attract his voters.
PHOTO ERALDO PERES, ASSOCIATED PRESS
“The number one priority for Lula is not to lose the votes” of those who voted for him in the first round, ie 57.2 million voters, explains Leandro Gabiati, of the Dominium consulting firm.
On Tuesday, Ciro Gomes’ party, the PDT, officially supported Lula, with the agreement of the candidate, who had nevertheless vehemently criticized the ex-president during the campaign.
For Mayra Goulart, professor of political science, the support of Tebet, a Catholic firmly anti-abortion, could allow Lula to “attract conservative voters” sensitive to social issues.
“My decision has already been made,” announced this 52-year-old senator on the evening of the first round, while specifying that she should consult her party, the MDB, before making any official announcement. This centrist formation is marked by deep divisions and has a strong Bolsonarist wing.
But the senator’s preference for the leftist candidate is an open secret.
She played a leading role in the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry that blamed the Bolsonaro government for its handling of the COVID-19 crisis. And the Brazilian media have reported on negotiations for a possible post of minister in a Lula government.
Reassure the business community
To obtain the support of more conservative sectors and reassure the business community, Lula must imperatively present an economic program providing in particular more guarantees of budgetary rigour.
“It’s fundamental to seduce the most versatile voters,” said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at the Catholic University of Rio (PUC).
Investors on Monday hailed Bolsonaro’s higher-than-expected score, with a rise of more than 5% on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange.
Look to the future
For Paulo Calmon, a political scientist from the University of Brasilia, Lula must also focus more on “proposals for the future”, rather than rehash “the successes of his first mandates”.
For many voters, his more recent past is also synonymous with corruption scandals. The annulment for defect of form of his convictions did not dispel suspicions.
For Mayra Goulart, Lula, the first Brazilian president from the working class, must also maintain his “emotional link with the working classes”, the basis of his electorate.