(Rio de Janeiro) Although he was overtaken by the favorite Lula in the first round of the Brazilian election on Sunday, Jair Bolsonaro approached the campaign for the second round with confidence on Monday, facing a stunned but combative left.
Posted yesterday at 10:15 p.m.
“Our opponents have prepared for a 100 meter race, but we are ready to run a marathon. We are going to fight with ever more confidence, ”launched the head of state on Twitter.
” Against all odds, we had more votes at 1er round than in 2018, nearly two million,” he insisted.
Sunday, in the first round of the presidential election, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, icon of the left, won 48% of the votes, ahead of the outgoing president of the extreme right, at 43%, with six million more votes, according to official results.
As with Brexit or the election of Donald Trump, which they did not see coming, the polls were seriously mistaken: they had promised Lula a 14-point lead in voting intentions (50% against 36%). and even, perhaps, a victory from the 1er round.
The Sao Paulo Stock Exchange welcomed these results on Monday with an increase of more than 5.5% an hour before the close, while economic circles, even with reservations, continue to support Jair Bolsonaro and his liberal policies.
Lula, for whom this result is very disappointing, met in the afternoon with his center-right running mate, ex-governor Gerald Alckmin, for a “campaign coordination meeting” in Sao Paulo.
“We must dialogue with the people who did not vote for us in the first round,” Lula told the press after the meeting.
“I can tell you that we are going to win this election. It’s just an extension, “declared late Sunday in front of his supporters the old lion of Brazilian politics, all the same visibly affected by this electoral disappointment.
“Tomorrow (Monday) I start campaigning,” said Lula, promising “more trips and other gatherings” to meet the Brazilians to clinch a 3e mandate on October 30.
He said he was looking forward to “the one-on-one debate” with his opponent, “to see if he will continue to lie”.
Dreaded disorders
The general elections organized in Brazil on Sunday also ended in unexpected success for the Bolsonarists in the posts of governors and in Congress, especially in the Senate, which saw the arrival of an ultra-conservative wave. Former government ministers were elected.
“We’re going to see a 2e radically polarized turn”, predicts Bruna Santos of the Brazil institute, while Brazil is already very fractured after four years with Bolsonaro in the presidency.
For Paulo Calmon, a political scientist from the University of Brasilia, “the race will be even more open and promises a fierce dispute” and “Bolsonaro maintains all his chances of re-election”.
Lula’s setback even gives Bolsonaro “an extra month to cause unrest in the streets,” said Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
He too considers that “Lula’s chances of being elected are much weaker”.
“We cannot exclude that Bolsonaro galvanizes his base and encourages him to pursue Lula supporters,” agrees Mr. Shifter, an analyst at Inter-American Dialogue.
Between the two camps, “there is a lot of resentment, hatred and it would not be surprising if this led to unrest”, while the campaign has already experienced violence.
Hate polls
Arrived in 3e and 4e position of the presidential, Simone Tebet (MDB of the center right), who obtained 4% of the votes and Ciro Gomes (PDT, center left, 3%) will be very courted.
“The voters of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, about eight million people, will decide who will be the next president,” said Bruna Santos.
The first round will have confirmed Jair Bolsonaro in his hatred of the polls, which placed him far behind Lula for weeks.
“We made the polls lie! exulted the populist president on Sunday evening, who says he prefers to take the pulse of Brazilians in the street, during his large rallies or during crowds.
For Guilherme Casaroes, “the polling institutes, which have given inconsistent projections for both the presidential and state elections, will have to reinvent themselves”.