(Brasilia) The new Brazilian Parliament leans even more to the right than the one elected four years ago, which would greatly complicate the task of a possible left-wing government of Lula, or facilitate that of Jair Bolsonaro if he is re-elected.
Posted yesterday at 11:40 p.m.
At the end of the first round, on October 2, the former left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva finished in the lead (48%), but it was the camp opposite that was at the party.
The far-right head of state obtained a much better score than the polls predicted for him (43%).
And whatever the outcome of the second round, on October 30, his formation, the Liberal Party (PL), will be the best represented in Parliament.
In the Chamber of Deputies, the PL won 99 of the 513 seats, unheard of for a Brazilian party since 1998, with 23 more elected than four years ago.
If we add the seats of the Progressive Party (PP) and the Republicans, two other parties that unconditionally support Bolsonaro, we get more than a third of the deputies (190).
In the Senate, the PL won six additional seats, for a total of 13 out of the 81 in the upper house, 53% controlled by right-wing parties.
“It’s a conservative, liberal parliament,” welcomed AFP the president of the lower house, Arthur Lira, of the PP, one of the closest allies of the outgoing president.
A Parliament “hostile” to Lula
Despite the cold shower of October 2, Lula remains the favorite in the polls.
But if he ends up winning in the second round, the former steelworker will have to deal with “a hostile Parliament, due to a push from the right, and especially from the far right”, explains Oliver Stuenkel, political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
According to him, parliamentarians like the deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the president, and the newly elected senator Sergio Moro, who sentenced Lula to prison for corruption, “will try to complicate his life”.
Requests for dismissal could be presented “from the start” of his possible mandate, on 1er January.
Lula’s left-wing coalition has around 120 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
To keep his campaign promises, such as tax increases for the richest, the former trade unionist will have to forge alliances at the center, as he did during his first two terms (2003-2010).
Who says center, says “Centrao”, a nebula of small parties which have been making rain and shine in Parliament for decades, with alliances according to the wind.
The “Centrao” weighs more than 240 seats in the new Parliament, more than enough to tip the scales in favor of Lula.
But this would be far from free: these parties often exchange their support in exchange for positions in the public administration or subsidies for their electoral strongholds.
And the tide can turn, as the left-wing ex-president Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), Lula’s runner-up, learned to her cost, neglected by a good part of the “Centrao” during her dismissal.
Carolina Botelho, a researcher in political communication at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, nevertheless considers that most right-wing elected officials could be open to dialogue.
“The most extremist do not have a large mass party that could put pressure on the executive,” she said.
Hands free for Bolsonaro
If the far-right president is re-elected, his second term could prove less divisive than his first four years in office.
“This Parliament is peaceful and this large majority will allow us to get (bills) approved more quickly,” the Head of State said on Sunday.
He will also be able to appoint two new judges to the Supreme Court from 2023, appointments to be approved by a Senate which is now more favorable to him.
It is also the upper chamber that can dismiss a judge from this high court, where Jair Bolsonaro has many pet peeves, including Alexandre de Moraes, who ordered the opening of investigations against him for disinformation.
“The biggest risk against democracy in a second term for Bolsonaro would be that he could put more pressure on the judiciary,” summarizes Oliver Stuenkel.