If the trend continues, the Parti Québécois (PQ) would win the next elections, far ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), whose number of seats would drop to its lowest since its formation.
According to the QC125 site, which compiles polling data to make electoral projections, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party would form a majority government if the elections took place today.
The PQ would win 69 ridings, far ahead of the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ), which remained the official opposition with 26 seats.
Québec solidaire (QS) would follow with 14 deputies, while the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) would win five ridings.
Finally, the most recent projections predict the worst result for the CAQ since the party was formed in 2011.
If the elections took place today, François Legault’s party would win barely 11 seats, compared to 90 in the last election.
In terms of voting intention, the PQ also maintains a good lead with 33% of support, compared to 23% for the CAQ. QS comes third with 17%, followed by the PLQ with 15% and the PCQ with 11%.
In the space of a year, support for the CAQ has melted by almost half, the result of a series of controversies – historic strike in education, return of the third Quebec-Lévis road link, subsidy for the arrival of the Kings from Los Angeles to the Videotron center.
During the same period, the PQ observed the opposite curve. Their support has continued to increase, quickly surpassing the Solidarity and Liberals, who are stagnating in the polls.
The next election is scheduled for October 2026.