Political parties no longer have any excuses for not presenting the economic and budgetary impacts of their electoral programs in a clear and comparable manner, say experts.
It was not easy to navigate the promises made by political parties during the last election campaigns in Quebec, for voters and experts alike. Even when quantified, the data was often too vague, was based on too different economic assumptions, spanned periods that were too variable and remained too vague on their impact on public finances to really allow them to be assessed and compare them, noted researchers from the Chair in Taxation and Public Finance (CFFP) at the University of Sherbrooke.
“The last elections of 2018 were still a lot better than the previous times” in this regard, explained during a video conference on Wednesday, Yves St-Maurice, economic consultant and researcher at the CFFP. But we were still far from the mark despite everything. »
Québec solidaire’s financial framework covered only one year. The frameworks of the Liberal Party of Quebec and the Coalition avenir Québec, for their part, extended over five years, but sought additional budgetary leeway by counting on greater economic growth than expected. The Conservative Party of Quebec was also counting on a providential boost from the economy in addition to granting itself the right to breach the law providing for payments to the Generations Fund. The Parti Québécois had shown itself to be the best pupil with a platform extending over a five-year horizon which was based on the economic and budgetary forecasts which were supposed to serve as a reference and which took into account the impact of its promises on the stabilization reserve. and debt.
Common portrait and simulators
This time, the political parties will have “no excuses”, said the professor and holder of the CFFP, Luc Godbout. Following the example of the 2018 elections, where it was a first, they can count on the common basis of comparison offered by the portrait of the economic and budgetary outlook contained in a Pre-election report on the state of public finances drawn up by the Ministère of Finance and which the Auditor General examined to assess its reliability and plausibility. They also have at their disposal simulators, one designed by the Ministry of Finance and the other by the CFFP, which allow them to estimate and present the financial and budgetary impact of each of their promises.
The Pre-Election Report already shows, among other things, that while it is true that the economic recovery and inflation are currently bringing the government more revenue than expected, it is still facing deficits this year and for years to come. come. “It is true that there is an upturn, but it is difficult to see any budgetary room for maneuver within the meaning of the law”, warns Luc Godbout. “Political parties that want to make promises of tax cuts or increased spending must take this into account. »
It is not a question of curbing the democratic debate, insists the expert. These simulators and common reference bases have, on the contrary, the power to “make discussions on taxation and public finances much more transparent for citizens. […] Everything is there, everything is clearer, so that they can find their way around and vote according to their real preferences. »