Three years ago, few would have predicted a second term for Doug Ford as his first year of reign had been stormy. But a week before the start of the provincial elections in Ontario, the Prime Minister is well ahead of his opponents in the voting intentions. How was he able to bring about this turnaround?
Early 2018. A race for mayor of Toronto is emerging between John Tory and Doug Ford. The latter makes his intentions known from his mother’s backyard; he hopes to follow the same path as his brother Rob, mayor of metropolitan Ontario between 2010 and 2014. But as the municipal election prepares, the ousting of Patrick Brown of the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario changes the situation. Doug Ford becomes party leader in March and is elected premier in June.
He enters provincial politics like an elephant in a china shop.
During the first year of his mandate, he forced the departure of the CEO of Hydro One, whom he said was overpaid; it eliminates the cap and trade system for greenhouse gas emission rights introduced by the previous government; it nearly halves the size of the City of Toronto’s city council. “It was an action-packed year,” agrees Kyle Jacobs, a former political adviser to the prime minister.
Between November 2018 and April 2019, the government tables an economic statement and then a budget which will be decisive. The province announces that it is ending the University of French Ontario project, then eliminating the Office of the French Language Services Commissioner, the watchdog of Franco-Ontarians. After these announcements, MP Amanda Simard left the Progressive Conservative caucus; she would join the Liberal Party almost a year later.
In the spring of 2019, the Minister of Finance, Victor Fedeli, presents a budget which reduces the expenses of 16 of the 22 ministries of the province in order to achieve a balanced budget. Toronto Public Health — which will be a key player in managing the pandemic — is losing about $200 million in funding, but the prime minister will then announce he’s changed his mind.
Communication problems abound. In June 2019, two months after the budget was tabled, Victor Fedeli lost his job. Ontarians then have a more favorable opinion of the NDP leader, Andrea Horwath, than of the premier. When the Toronto Raptors celebrate their NBA championship in front of thousands of fans, Doug Ford is greeted on stage with boos.
It may therefore seem surprising to see Doug Ford leading in the polls as the next election campaign approaches. But “the government’s response during the pandemic was a turning point,” said Kyle Jacobs.
learning curve
According to political scientist Zack Taylor, who has studied the popularity of the Ford brothers in Toronto, the prime minister only really understood how parliamentary governance works at the time of the pandemic. “I think he thought that in front of the Prime Minister, he could say things and that they would take place,” explains the Western University professor. “He learned pretty quickly that it doesn’t work that way. »
Franco-Toronto Christine Maydossian, a former political adviser to Rob Ford, has also seen this development. “You realize there are so many stakeholders, so many stakeholders, so many people have interests. […] All politicians come in one way and come out another way,” she says.
During the pandemic, breaking with his previous style, Doug Ford listened to the advice of public health experts and his Minister of Health, Christine Elliott. Zack Taylor was not surprised. “When he was a city councilor in Toronto, he had no patience for elites, but as an entrepreneur, he was interested in management,” notes the political scientist. This was seen during the pandemic: he was ready to respect the doctors, because listening to their advice was in line with his principles, analyzes the professor.
Some expected Doug Ford to handle the pandemic the same way Donald Trump did, to whom he was compared in 2018. But the Ontario premier didn’t downplay the pandemic the way the US president did: the province even had some of the strictest sanitary measures on the continent for about a year and a half. “Doug Ford is a conservative, but ultimately he’s a populist who wants to be popular,” said Derek Leebosh, vice president of polling firm Environics.
Between March 2020 and June 2020, voting intentions attributed to the Progressive Conservative Party increased by nine percentage points, from 33% to 42%. In the months that followed, some Progressive Conservative MPs complained, however, and five of them quit caucus precisely because of the pandemic.
Doug Ford is a conservative, but ultimately he’s a populist who wants to be popular
By way of comparison: in Quebec, only one member of the CAQ, Claire Samson, did the same. And if his new clan, the Conservative Party of Quebec, obtains about 14% of the vote according to certain polls, no party has similarly distinguished itself to the right of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives.
A referendum on Doug Ford?
Earlier this year, while the “Freedom Convoy” was in full swing, Doug Ford was absent from the public square: the Premier of Ontario did not address the media on the 1er to February 10. And although some of the measures he had introduced were the target of the aggressiveness of the demonstrators, his name was little pronounced by the protesters, unlike that of Justin Trudeau, has also noted Derek Leebosh. “It struck me that he avoided being named as a target or a responsible person. »
Last year, some observers claimed the 2022 provincial election would essentially be a referendum on Doug Ford and his handling of the pandemic. Professor Jonathan Malloy, of Carleton University, was part of the group, but he is less convinced today — and this, even if Ontarians say they are rather dissatisfied with the work of the Ontario government in the matter.
“Liberals and NDP would like it to be a referendum [sur Doug Ford], but I don’t think it will resonate with voters. Ontarians consider him an extraordinary man, yes, but also “sincere and pragmatic”, believes the political science expert.