The Ontario leaders of the NDP and the Liberal Party, the two main opposition parties at Queen’s Park, submitted their resignations Thursday evening following the election of a majority Progressive Conservative government. And although they believe they are withdrawing for the good of their respective parties, the latter face very distinct future prospects.
Throughout the campaign, New Democrats and Liberals vied for the Progressive vote, each portraying themselves as the only real alternative to the Progressive Conservatives. Doug Ford’s party nevertheless won with an even larger majority than four years ago, going from 76 to 83 seats. The NDP won 31 — and thus remains the official opposition — while the Liberal Party will return to Queen’s Park with eight MPs.
Before midnight struck, NDP leader Andrea Horwath had tendered her resignation. “It is time for me to pass the torch,” then said in tears the one who had just led a fourth electoral campaign at the head of her party. The politician, however, remained optimistic for the future: “Our team is so strong,” she said.
Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca, who resigned a little later — and failed to reclaim his former riding of Vaughan-Woodbridge from the Progressive Conservatives — couldn’t say the same.
For the second time in a row, the Liberals do not obtain official party status at Queen’s Park (and thus will not be entitled to public funding from the legislature). And for the second time in a row, the NDP becomes the official opposition (a first in the history of the party). “It will anchor the idea that the New Democrats now represent the government in waiting,” said Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto.
The next NDP leader will face some challenges — (re)wooing voters in suburban Toronto, for example — notes former NDP strategist Cameron Holmstrom, but he could also become prime minister in 2026. after the former liberal strategist Pierre Cyr, the reds will have difficulty recruiting a leader with a good profile, and the latter will have to rebuild a demobilized party.
The tarnished liberal brand
The Liberals have had success in recent Ontario history. They governed the province from 1985 to 1990 and then from 2003 to 2018 under Premiers David Peterson, Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne. But they collapsed in 2018: they only elected seven MPs, losing 48 seats at Queen’s Park in one fell swoop. The fall of the party was such at the time that Mme Wynne had already thrown in the towel a week before the ballot.
By electing only eight MPs on Thursday, the Liberals will still not be considered an official party at Queen’s Park. A situation that worries the former political adviser Pierre Cyr. Without a statute (and without a research office), it will be difficult for the Liberal Party to take its place in Ontario’s political debate: its representatives will not be able to ask as many questions in the House, among other things. Its role will be “very diminished”, believes Mr. Cyr.
According to the former strategist, some liberals hope to find their savior outside of politics. But how to recruit him when the party is in such a poor state? “If you are a person with a good profile and you see the state of the party, you say to yourself: ‘Maybe I’ll wait…’”, notes Mr. Cyr. Especially since this candidate will have to succeed in making himself known without being at Queen’s Park, which Steven Del Duca did not succeed.
The challenge will be great, but Pierre Cyr still believes that the Ontario Liberal Party needs new blood. Organizers from the Peterson era (who left power in 1990) are still there, he notes, but does not point fingers for defeat
The former Liberal strategist notes, however, that the party seemed disorganized, and that it did not focus on the constituencies where it had a chance of winning. Provincially on Thursday night, the Liberals won 1,693 more votes than the New Democrats. But they won 23 fewer seats. “The Liberal vote is like butter spread on bread”, illustrates for his part Professor Wiseman.
A New Democrat coalition to expand
The NDP, on the other hand, managed to collect sufficiently concentrated votes in a few regions – in Kitchener and in northern Ontario, among others, notes Cameron Holmstrom.
But that won’t be enough to get into power, and the next NDP leader will have to learn from Doug Ford, says the former party strategist. The Conservative leader renewed his majority by expanding his coalition of voters—among union members and cultural communities, for example—and by protecting his reliable ridings.
To reach new voters, the NDP will need to re-establish some connections with the population, Holmstrom thinks. MPs like Marit Stiles, who has already shown interest in the leadership, Catherine Fife or Michael Mantha could do this job, he believes.
With their 31 ridings, they already have a head start on their Liberal colleagues.
This story is supported by the Local Journalism Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada.