Without wanting to sell the skin of the bear before having killed it, the surprises that the provincial campaign has in store for us will be more regional than national. There are constituencies where a heated struggle between the parties is emerging.
Sherbrooke
Christine Labrie, the outgoing solidarity deputy, will have to redouble her efforts to hope to keep her riding. The threat from Caroline St-Hilaire is serious, especially when combined with the popularity of the CAQ. Formerly liberal, this flagship riding in the Estrie region could, once again, change color. Sherbrooke was successively PQ, Liberal, PQ, Liberal and Solidarity. Sherbrooke residents are not voters to be taken for granted, will they try light blue this time? To be continued !
Laval
These are five of the six Laval ridings that will be on the ballot on October 3. Four of them are currently held by the Liberal Party of Quebec, but only Saul Polo, the incumbent MP for Laval-des-Rapides, will seek the votes in the hope of being re-elected. Will he succeed in defending his constituency? Have ! Even Fabre, a Liberal riding for nearly 20 years, could change color, that says it all. Chomedey should turn red again after being represented by independent MP Guy Ouellette. But this logic is not flawless.
Montreal
Anjou–Louis-Riel, Rosemont, Maurice-Richard, Verdun and Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne are definitely ridings to watch on the island. We could see epic three-way battles (CAQ, PLQ and QS) which are likely to keep us in suspense, especially since Dominique Anglade could find himself in danger. Let us recall the defeats of party leaders in their own ridings in recent history (Jean Charest, Pauline Marois, Jean-François Lisée, etc.).
Of course, elsewhere in Quebec, other battles will be hotly contested: Bonaventure, Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Gatineau, Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue promise quite a show! The result is therefore far from being known in advance.