eight years after the Paris agreement, global climate goals are far from being met

Objectives far from being met. COP28, which takes place from November 30 to December 12 in Dubai, will be an opportunity for countries around the world to take stock of the objectives defined during the Paris Agreement in 2015. Eight years after adoption of this international treaty, which commits the signatories to limiting global warming “well below” of 2°C and 1.5°C if possible, the 194 member countries and the European Union will therefore evaluate the action taken so far to mitigate global warming and adapt to its consequences. This work will be an important prerequisite for the mandatory review of national action plans by 2025 and the COP30 planned in Brazil.

The lights are red. The negotiators themselves recognize this: “Unfortunately, we all agree that we are not at all where we should be”deplores to franceinfo Stéphane Crouzat, climate ambassador of France. Before the political transcription of this work, here are the various analyzes already published.

The world “is not on track to achieve” its objectives, according to an initial assessment

A first document was published in September by the UN Climate. This is the technical assessment of the Paris Agreement, carried out with the aim of preparing the assessment which will be negotiated by the States at COP28, on the basis of the national action plans of each signatory country. “Since its adoption, the Paris Agreement has driven near-universal climate action, but the global community is not on track to achieve the long-term goals set out there, despite the progress made”, we can read there. The report is indeed concerned that global greenhouse gas emissions “do not follow modeled mitigation trajectories” which would make it possible to limit warming to 1.5°C and that the possibilities of respecting the Paris agreement “diminishing quickly”.

“The first global stocktaking comes at a critical time for accelerating collective progress. All actors must do much more, on all fronts, to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.”

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

in its technical assessment

The document calls for a global surge, emphasizing the need to move away from fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas), accelerate the deployment of renewables and unlock financial mechanisms for adaptation, transition and development. Envelope to fill out, according to the UN: “trillions of dollars”. “We must transform systems in all sectors and in all contexts, in particular by developing renewable energies, while gradually eliminating all fossil fuels without mitigation, by putting an end to deforestation, by reducing emissions other than CO2 and applying measures focused on both supply and demand”, write the experts. So many solutions often already “ready to be applied”, who are waiting for political will.

“Giant steps” needed to fill the gaps of the past

The UN has released another analysis that goes into detail, looking at national climate plans. According to her, countries’ current commitments lead to a 2% reduction in emissions between 2019 and 2030. Instead of the 43% recommended to limit warming to 1.5°C, established by the IPCC. The UN analysis, “consistent with last year’s findings, indicates that while emissions no longer increase after 2030 compared to 2019 levels, they still do not show the rapid decline that science says is necessary in this decade”underline its authors.

This conclusion shows that governments must move from “small steps” to “giant step forward at COP28”, said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Waiting for, “we are off track”he warns. “Inch by centimeter progress will not do the trick”supported UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. “The time has come for a supernova of climate ambition in every country, city, sector”he added.

Warming could exceed the 1.5°C target

What could be the consequences of this lack of ambition on the climate? This is the question that the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a reference body created by a community of experts and led by environmental NGOs. The answer lies between 1.8°C and 2.7°C of warming over the century. Around +1.8°C if we are “optimistic”, assuming that all the promises of the States are properly implemented. And +2.7°C on average if we want to be realistic, based on the “policies and actions” real, explains the CAT, accompanied by the German NewClimate institute, in its analysis dating from November 2022 and following “39 countries and the EU, covering 85% of global emissions”.

The observation is shared by the IPCC. In their latest report, the experts commissioned by the UN write: “By 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions from [plans d’actions des Etats] announced until October 2021 make warming beyond 1.5°C likely during the 21st century and make it difficult to limit it below 2°C.” Translation: without more ambitious action plans, the two vital thresholds for humanity established in the Paris agreement will remain unattainable.