a famine “inevitable”. This is what will cause, if there is no change, the war in Ukraine in 12 to 18 months, according to Emmanuel Macron. Following the NATO and G7 summits on Thursday March 24, the Head of State called on Russia to be “responsible”allowing sowing to take place in Ukraine.
With the blocking or capture of its ports by the Russian army, the country can no longer export its cereal production. For Moscow, international sanctions are also likely to disrupt exports. However, the two countries are among the main world suppliers of wheat, corn, barley, rapeseed and sunflower. As a result, prices soar and food shortages are looming in highly populated countries which are highly dependent on their grain imports. Franceinfo makes a first inventory.
Egypt regulates the price of bread
Egypt is the most important destination for Russian and Ukrainian wheat, recalls AFP. Thus, 85% of what it imports in wheat comes from the two countries (62% from Russia and 23% from Ukraine), according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Bread consumption per capita reaches 130 kg per year, well above the world average. The more than 102 million Egyptians, a third of whom live below the poverty line, are bearing the full brunt of the soaring prices of cereals and therefore of bread.
A few days before the start of Ramadan, a period synonymous with food expenditure for households, Cairo has decided for the first time to regulate the price of unsubsidized bread. The government has also announced that it has increased its budget for the purchase of wheat by 865 million euros, an amount in addition to subsidies of more than five billion euros for basic foodstuffs.
In return, the Prime Minister urged traders to “not to exploit the situation”while calling on the Egyptians to “be reasonable in their consumption so as not to force [l’Etat] having to turn to global markets” where prices are soaring. Egypt has also announced that it will halt its own wheat and flour exports for three months, “which will hit other countries, especially Eritrea, Somalia and Yemen”, anticipates the European NGO Transport and Environment with AFP.
Tunisia claims to have three months of wheat reserve
In Tunisia, food prices are also rising. Residents are worried. The flour and semolina shelves are taken by storm. Half of the wheat consumed in the country is imported. He comes mainly from Ukraine and Russia. The government, however, ensures that it has stocks for three months.
The country has been facing a shortage of many staple foods for weeks, such as rice, semolina, sugar and flour. Tunisian President Kais Saied said “the war” to speculators. The government largely subsidizes basic products such as coffee, sugar, pasta or semolina. The price of the baguette has not changed for 10 years (6 euro cents).
On the verge of financial asphyxiation and in serious economic difficulty, the government has been discussing since February with the International Monetary Fund. The latter could demand the end of certain subsidies, a decision that would weigh heavily on household budgets.
Algeria bans the export of semolina
Algeria is the Maghreb state that buys the most wheat abroad each year. Russia and Ukraine are among the countries that have been supplying it in recent months. Faced with geopolitical uncertainty, the Algerian government has decided to anticipate possible shortages by banning the export of semolina, pasta and other consumer products derived from wheat, in order to preserve its stocks.
However, the Algerian state has an ace up its sleeve: it exports oil and takes advantage of the surge in world prices. Consequently, Algiers is “able to buy wheat even with rising prices”argues Sébastien Abis, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, with France 24.
Morocco fears a popular revolt
Morocco imported more than 4.5 million tonnes of wheat in 2021, according to statistics aggregator IndexMundi (content in English), which is based on figures from the United States Department of Agriculture. Russia and Ukraine are again among the suppliers. Morocco has sufficient wheat stocks to cover five months of consumption, having received most of its orders from Ukraine before the start of the conflict, assures the head of the national flour milling federation, interviewed by the Moroccan media The reporter.
However, the government says it is ready to import cereals from the European Union or any other region of the world, the National Radio and Television Company reported. The country is facing a major drought, its economy is dependent on the agricultural sector, and it is not immune to a popular revolt. “All the conditions are met for the emergence of a real popular discontent which would then represent a real threat to social stability”said the daily Akhbar Al Youm (article in Arabic)March 2.
Sudan faces a risk of food disaster
In one of the poorest countries in the world, the consequences of the war in Ukraine could plunge the population into an acute food crisis. By the end of the year, “20 million people will be food insecure” out of 45 million Sudanese, assures AFP David Wright, of the NGO Save the Children.
On the one hand, because “86-87% of the country’s wheat comes from Russia and Ukraine”. On the other, because Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine caused world prices to soar beyond the records of 2008, which had already led to food riots, explains David Wright.
The price of bread has already increased tenfold since the military coup in October, which deprived the country of any international political or economic support. Washington, which had sent 300,000 tons of wheat in 2021, will not deliver the 400,000 tons promised in 2022. According to the UN, one in three Sudanese needs humanitarian aid.
Prices soar in Libya
Food imports are vital for Libya: 75% of its wheat comes from Russia and Ukraine. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the prices of flour, milk, oil, canned goods and sugar have soared.
The Libyan Minister of Economy and Trade assured at the end of February that wheat reserves should be sufficient for more than a year, according to a recent note from Bercy. The authorities also cracked down on vendors who had raised the price of flour.
“No shortage” in Lebanon, but…
“Lebanon depends 50% for its food on Russian and Ukrainian wheat”, underlines Christiane Lambert, president of the first organization representing farmers in Europe, Copa-Cogeca, to AFP. The Lebanese Minister of Economy assured at the beginning of March that“there [avait] no shortage” and that the quantities stored were “sufficient” for a period“between a month and a half or two”reported The Orient-The Day.
The Lebanese daily also recalled the emergency measures taken by the government, including a framework for flour deliveries.
In Turkey, the price of bread is soaring
According to Murat Kapikiran, the president of the Istanbul Chamber of Agricultural Engineers, the Turkish wheat production “barely covers 80% of needs” of the country, against “107% four years ago”. “We have become dependent on Russia and Ukraine. And now the crisis will get worse”he predicts.
The price of bread has already worried the Turks for several months, even before the war in Ukraine. According to a bakers’ union, flour increased by 85% between April and November 2021, prompting many bakeries to raise their prices. In addition, inflation jumped to more than 48% in Turkey in January, its highest level since 2002.