Ukraine and Russia are with France and Germany the main wheat producers on the European continent. If the war continues, Ukrainian grain production could be permanently compromised. Six million tons of wheat and nine million tons of corn are currently blocked in Ukrainian ports. And economic sanctions against Moscow could also disrupt Russian exports. Cereal stocks, the staple food for billions of people around the world, represent an average of four to five months of consumption.
North Africa and the Middle East import half of their wheat needs every year, ie around fifty million tonnes. This region alone captures a third of world wheat imports. Sub-Saharan Africa is also concerned with about 15% of world imports. Among the main buyers of wheat in the world, we find Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria.
Egypt, the world’s leading wheat importer, buys some ten million tons (public and private) of wheat on international markets every year. In 2021, 50% of this wheat came from Russia and 30% from Ukraine.
Ukraine exports a large part of its wheat and maize production to China, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, but also Tunisia, Morocco and African countries such as Nigeria.
With a 23% rise in wheat prices in recent weeks, in addition to soaring oil prices, these countries, barely out of the Covid-19 epidemic, are worried about a return to riots. from hunger. They had destabilized many African countries following the 2008 financial crisis. Insecurity and rising food prices are a vulnerability for States.
On the other hand, getting hold of Ukrainian production would be a trump card for Moscow to control a large part of the market. Ten countries alone account for 85% of world wheat exports. These are the United States, Canada, Australia and Argentina, which are further from the Mediterranean coast than the major cereal production areas of France, Russia, Ukraine and even Kazakhstan.
Wheat, if harvested only once or twice a year, must be able to be delivered throughout the year, which implies reliable transport capacities. In particular access to the Mediterranean for Russian and Ukrainian production. This is not currently the case since the Turkish navy is blocking the entrances and exits from the Black Sea.