Edmonton Oilers | Still behind offensive stars… and goalies

(Edmonton) It’s not just the Canadiens who are currently on their honeymoon with a new head coach.

Simon Olivier Lorange
The Press

Just as Martin St-Louis was preparing to meet the Montreal media for the first time in his new role on February 10, the Edmonton Oilers announced that they were showing the door to Dave Tippett and that they were promoting Jay Woodcroft. The latter led until then the school club of the Condors of Bakersfield, in the American League.

While there was no more season to save in Montreal, as the team’s position in the standings was low, the situation was quite different in the Alberta capital. After two straight quick playoff eliminations, missing the playoffs was definitely not an option, especially when counting on two of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

However, the boat was taking on water, and not just a little. In the 23 games prior to the coaching change, the Oilers were one of the worst teams in the NHL, having literally been the best in the first quarter of the schedule. By starting the third quarter with a new voice, we gave a serious turn.

Various players have already, over the past few weeks, praised Woodcroft’s attention to “detail”. This mostly echoes the elements of execution: Zach Hyman talked about better work in the neutral zone, while Warren Foegele spoke about more defined roles and responsibilities, according to Athletic.

Go for the details. But there are still heavy trends, easily observable, which have fluctuated widely since the start of the season and which have stabilized with the new direction.

To capture these trends, we’ve separated the Oilers’ seasons into three segments. The first corresponds to the team’s phenomenal start to the season, the second to the descent into hell that cost Tippett the job, and the last to the Woodcroft era.

First let’s take a look at the team’s performance in attack. At the start of the campaign, the opposing defenders did not know where to turn. It wasn’t so much that the chances of scoring were countless, but we systematically took advantage of them. And the power play was happening at a pace.

It is really these two elements that have broken down. The low success rate of shots on goal at 5 against 5 testifies to this. A confidence deficit was growing.

Under Woodcroft, the magic has partly returned, but it is above all the ability to generate attack that holds our attention. Beyond the pucks in the back of the net, the chances of scoring and expected goals have increased significantly. When it comes to the proverbial “right way to play” and details, it looks pretty much like that.

Another thing that jumps out at you is how much of the life and death of the Oilers is dictated by the McDavid-Draisaitl duo. During the first segment of their schedule, the Edmontonians scored 80 goals. During this time, their two leaders have amassed… 81 points! The trend couldn’t be clearer for the next two portions of the season. When both stars slow down, the team automatically scoops.

Note, however, that the arrival of Evander Kane at the end of January helped diversify the attack.

Koskinen gets up

When we do the same exercise with defensive performance, we have no other choice but to look at the goalkeepers.

Because the Oilers defenders, if not very good, are fairly consistent as a group. They even improved slightly as the attack crumbled. Moreover, the numerical disadvantage remains, to this day, a serious problem.

In goal, things weren’t going well. At the time of Tippett’s dismissal, Mikko Koskinen certainly had a winning record (16-8-2), but his 3.15 goals-against-average and .900 save percentage betrayed glaring shortcomings.

The rag was burning besides with its trainer. Tippett, after a loss in early January, claimed his keeper “wasn’t very good” and identified a “brutal error” on one of the goals. In a media from Finland, his country of origin, Koskinen was sorry to have been thus “thrown under the bus”, but recalled that, in a crisis like the one his club was going through, “it’s the goalkeeper or the trainer who is sacrificed”. He was right!

With Tippett gone, the goalkeepers’ situation has radically improved. At 5-5, only three teams have given up fewer goals than the duo of Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith — mostly thanks to the Finn. The young Stuart Skinner also played a game, won by shutout.

Did Koskinen suddenly become a superstar? Absolutely not. But the fact that he has regained some semblance of poise at a key moment in the season certainly encourages his bosses.

Because until proven otherwise, and fewer major trades over the next two weeks, the Oilers remain a team whose destiny is tied to that of its two big guns and its goalies.