The short-stepped man, with both feet in very old age, formalized his candidacy for a second presidential term, in a way the antithesis of the screaming Donald Trump and not without evoking the memory of a Joe Biden who, in 2020 and in the midst of a pandemic, will have largely campaigned from the basement of his residence in Delaware. In the polished three-minute video released Tuesday morning, he nevertheless clearly sets the scene, with many references to the assault on the Capitol, promises to ward off disorder, improve the lot of the “people” and to “finish the job” — although we know full well that, in the state of the United States and the world, another Biden mandate will certainly not be enough to finish it.
In 2020, for a while, some had wanted to see in the choice of Kamala Harris as running mate the possibility that Joe Biden, at the height of his 78 years, sticks to a single mandate and thus prepares the ground for the election. of a woman, “of color” moreover, in the presidential election of 2024. They were dreaming. If Mme Harris has been electorally helpful to Mr. Biden, speculation has not proven true, with Trump’s refusal to concede defeat persistently polluting the political environment. In the constrained function of the vice-presidency, Mme Harris has moreover been entrusted with the puzzling files of immigration and access to the right to vote, and has broken his teeth there, attracting criticism on the left and on the right. The prevailing sexism and racism did the rest. But it is false, by the way, to claim that Americans “are not ready” to elect a woman president: proof of this is that, had it not been for the dysfunctional electoral system that is that of the United States, United, Hillary Clinton would have become president in 2016, having won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.
Who goes slowly, goes surely. By declaring his candidacy for this first post-pandemic presidential candidacy early, Mr. Biden sends a signal to his potential rivals that the Democratic Party has no interest in embarking on a race for the nomination that would illuminate its tensions. And it is therefore largely out of cold resignation that, in the circumstances, the democrats surrender to this calculation and close ranks around it. A sign that American political life is frozen. Democrats and Republicans alike remain trapped by a Donald Trump who refuses, despite the nuisance effect, to step aside.
Polls are currently saying two things: First, that a majority of Americans don’t really want another Biden-Trump showdown — a battle between a reasonable old man with flickering mental acumen and an unreasonable adversary , not so much younger, but otherwise more deranged. Clear sign, again, of ample political fatigue which could give twisted results at the ballot box. The polls then say that by securing the Republican nomination, Mr. Trump improves Mr. Biden’s chances of winning. We saw it in the last mid-term elections, the presence of candidates dubbed by Trump having helped the Democrats to save the furniture in Congress. If, therefore, Trump and Biden compete in unpopularity in public opinion, the fact remains that the first, who is also struggling with justice, remains the second’s best campaign argument.
These electoral considerations being, and within the limits of the neoliberal algorithm that prevents our democracies from improving, Mr. Biden is however far from having done badly since the beginning of his mandate, showing a progressive will that we weren’t expecting. The left of the party gave voice and it knew how to listen: major investments in the green economy – although in a logic that sins by strong protectionism – cancellation of student debts, child assistance, reduction of the price medicines… He navigated between this left and the center of the chessboard without which it is difficult to take power. To increase its chances of winning in November 2024, inflation will have to continue to subside and that the additional leadership provided by the war in Ukraine against Russia will continue to operate, even if the foreign policy stakes rarely have a major electoral impact.
Trump and Biden, again? Maybe not. The presidential election is still a long way off. If Trump remains well ahead in the race for the Republican nomination, thanks to a hard and blind core of supporters, the fact remains that other candidates will come forward, starting with Ron DeSantis, young governor (44 years old) of the Florida, gravedigger of abortion rights, hero of the anti-Woke movement. It’s hard to imagine that this ultra-conservative, if he wins the nomination, would know how to transpose the political success he won in Florida to the national level. If he succeeds in overtaking Trump, the battle against Biden would in any case become extraordinarily and terrifyingly ideologically clear.