EDITORIAL. The use of 49.3 for pension reform marks a turning point in the five-year term

The first consequence of this decision is the filing of a motion of censure by the opposition to try to bring down the government. There will undoubtedly be several: one from the RN, another from the Nupes. They have almost no chance of being adopted since the LR group will not join them. A cross-partisan motion carried by the Liot group, which brings together centrist, regionalist and West Indian elected officials, could bring together a wider audience. But to obtain a majority, it should fill up with all the opposition, rebels in the RN, and be voted by at least 25 LR deputies, which seems unlikely.

In fact, the main political consequence is the weakening of Elisabeth Borne. She did not want 49.3 and suffered a heavy personal failure. His days at Matignon seem numbered.

Why a new use of 49.3?

The Head of State ended up coming to terms with the facts. The margin was far too narrow, maybe two or three votes, to vote. Basically, he is paying for a serious political error there: he snubbed the unions, in particular the CFDT, to seek a political agreement with a partner, LR, who snapped his fingers. The right was not a reliable ally. So there was only 49.3 left. It was to provide this emergency exit that Emmanuel Macron had chosen to integrate the reform into a budgetary text. Initially, last September, he had even considered postponing the legal retirement age through an amendment to the Social Security financing bill.

Political blockage

It is undoubtedly a turning point. The executive does not have a majority, it cannot count on reinforcement from the right. He no longer has the political and institutional means to continue to govern with blows of 49.3. And the relative majority is more and more fragile: 49.3 also angers deputies who support the government, in particular at the MoDem. It is not clear how the government will be able to continue to reform over time. There are more than four years left before the end of the legislature, which is a long, very long time. Few imagine that it will come to an end. And the democratic logic of such a blocking situation could impose itself: that of a dissolution and a return to the voters sooner than expected.